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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET

Resolved Up. 27% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 27%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$865.27

Combined PnL

$-2.0K

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 15 top traders (27%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,012
Combined PnL$-2.0K
Up11 traders
Total Value$770.27
Total Shares770
Combined PnL+$16.25
Down — 27%Up — 73%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR
Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

61%

23-15 (38)

BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Down

Invested

$501.9

Value

—

PnL

-$501.9

Record

57%

2260-1719 (3979)

QU
QuantumPebble673
Up

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

HC
Hcrystallash
Up

Invested

$160.38

Value

$162

PnL

+$1.62

Record

57%

4449-3308 (7757)

DE
devonpollARB<$100
Up

Invested

$92.85

Value

$95

PnL

+$2.15

Record

50%

224-222 (446)

Both legs:

Up$47.8550.4¢+$47.15
Down$4550¢-$45
PL
ply-pm2<$100
Up

Invested

$28.86

Value

$23.61

PnL

-$5.26

Record

53%

1383-1227 (2610)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$30

Value

—

PnL

-$20.1

Record

53%

1222-1079 (2301)

BL
blue.birds<$100
Up

Invested

$15.76

Value

$15.85

PnL

+$0.09

Record

52%

3892-3651 (7543)

OhioRiskManagement<$100
Up

Invested

$12.61

Value

$17

PnL

+$4.39

Record

39%

722-1145 (1867)

MayorMamdani<$100
Up

Invested

$11.45

Value

$16.7

PnL

+$5.25

Record

51%

1437-1363 (2800)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

$7.92

Value

$11.58

PnL

+$3.66

Record

67%

1964-988 (2952)

RA
rabadabadoo<$100
Up

Invested

$6.05

Value

$9.02

PnL

+$2.97

Record

47%

832-938 (1770)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Up

Invested

$4.85

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.15

Record

62%

1352-844 (2196)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$4.1

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

62%

2249-1386 (3635)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$2.25

Value

—

PnL

-$2.25

Record

47%

1150-1313 (2463)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100
Up

Invested

$2.03

Value

$4.51

PnL

+$2.48

Record

48%

1035-1129 (2164)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xe062a021...bf42aa
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1794468300

Traders in this Market

0X

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

CTR

Down — $0

$-1.5K
BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Down — $0

-$501.9
QU

QuantumPebble673

Up — $500

+$0
HC

Hcrystallash

Up — $162

+$1.62
DE

devonpoll

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

+$2.15
PL

ply-pm2

Up — $23.61

-$5.26

Polkadot-Frog

CTR

Down — $0

-$20.1
BL

blue.birds

Up — $15.85

+$0.09

OhioRiskManagement

Up — $17

+$4.39

MayorMamdani

Up — $16.7

+$5.25
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