Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET
Resolved Up. 25% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
20
Down 25%
2 arb excluded
$1.7K
$-1.4K
Smart Money Signal
5 of 20 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 23-15 (38) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.7¢ | $513.8 | $500 | +$5.8 | 57% 2260-1719 (3979) |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 35.8¢ | $203.13 | $60 | -$143.13 | 50% 1033-1042 (2075) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.8¢ | $159.33 | — | -$159.33 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 73¢ | $43.8 | $60 | +$16.2 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 98.8¢ | $140.8 | $142.54 | +$1.74 | 48% 1035-1129 (2164) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 51.2¢ | $93.75 | $95.14 | +$1.39 | 50% 224-222 (446) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 51.2¢ | $48.75 | $95.14 | +$46.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | — | -$45 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $72.27 | $73 | +$0.73 | 98% 2090-43 (2133) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 65.8¢ | $63.4 | $60 | +$0.25 | 53% 1222-1079 (2301) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 63.2¢ | $35.53 | $42.69 | +$7.16 | 53% 1383-1227 (2610) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 68¢ | $33.83 | $35.86 | +$2.03 | 47% 832-938 (1770) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $24.15 | $35 | +$10.85 | 48% 1128-1223 (2351) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 63.5¢ | $48.25 | $28.5 | +$11.16 | 52% 3892-3651 (7543) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 67.6¢ | $21.9 | $30.83 | +$8.93 | 51% 1437-1363 (2800) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $20.44 | $18 | -$2.44 | 67% 1964-988 (2952) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $19.87 | $18.18 | -$1.69 | 62% 2249-1386 (3635) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $12.76 | $20 | +$7.24 | 47% 1150-1313 (2463) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 68.3¢ | $10.35 | $15.14 | +$4.79 | 44% 1127-1429 (2556) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $7.97 | — | -$7.97 | 60% 2128-1425 (3553) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $10 | +$1.6 | 39% 722-1145 (1867) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Downavg 34¢ | $4.67 | — | -$4.67 | 47% 1449-1613 (3062) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $2.05 | — | -$2.05 | 47% 1289-1465 (2754) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 13¢ | $0.65 | — | -$0.65 | 38% 411-683 (1094) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
23-15 (38)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$513.8
Value
$500
PnL
+$5.8
Record
57%
2260-1719 (3979)
Invested
$203.13
Value
$60
PnL
-$143.13
Record
50%
1033-1042 (2075)
Both legs:
Invested
$140.8
Value
$142.54
PnL
+$1.74
Record
48%
1035-1129 (2164)
Invested
$93.75
Value
$95.14
PnL
+$1.39
Record
50%
224-222 (446)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.27
Value
$73
PnL
+$0.73
Record
98%
2090-43 (2133)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$63.4
Value
$60
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
1222-1079 (2301)
Invested
$35.53
Value
$42.69
PnL
+$7.16
Record
53%
1383-1227 (2610)
Invested
$33.83
Value
$35.86
PnL
+$2.03
Record
47%
832-938 (1770)
ohioism<$100Invested
$24.15
Value
$35
PnL
+$10.85
Record
48%
1128-1223 (2351)
Invested
$48.25
Value
$28.5
PnL
+$11.16
Record
52%
3892-3651 (7543)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$21.9
Value
$30.83
PnL
+$8.93
Record
51%
1437-1363 (2800)
Invested
$20.44
Value
$18
PnL
-$2.44
Record
67%
1964-988 (2952)
Invested
$19.87
Value
$18.18
PnL
-$1.69
Record
62%
2249-1386 (3635)
Invested
$12.76
Value
$20
PnL
+$7.24
Record
47%
1150-1313 (2463)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$10.35
Value
$15.14
PnL
+$4.79
Record
44%
1127-1429 (2556)
Invested
$7.97
Value
—
PnL
-$7.97
Record
60%
2128-1425 (3553)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.6
Record
39%
722-1145 (1867)
Invested
$4.67
Value
—
PnL
-$4.67
Record
47%
1449-1613 (3062)
Invested
$2.05
Value
—
PnL
-$2.05
Record
47%
1289-1465 (2754)
Invested
$0.65
Value
—
PnL
-$0.65
Record
38%
411-683 (1094)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown — $0
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
Up — $500
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $142.54
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Up — $73
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $60
ply-pm2
Up — $42.69
rabadabadoo
Up — $35.86