Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET
Resolved Up. 78% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
18
Up 78%
3 arb excluded
$4.6K
-$19.79
Smart Money Signal
14 of 18 top traders (78%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$5.37 | 61% 23-15 (38) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $713.61 | $1.4K | +$699.68 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $710.38 | — | -$694.31 | |
HC Hcrystallash | Upavg 99¢ | $624.69 | $631 | +$6.31 | 57% 4449-3308 (7757) |
HO hoodquant | Upavg 98¢ | $558.6 | $570 | +$11.4 | 98% 2090-43 (2133) |
 BoneOhio | Upavg 99¢ | $508.64 | $513.78 | +$5.14 | 74% 897-310 (1207) |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $521.15 | $500 | +$0.15 | 57% 2260-1719 (3979) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.3¢ | $246.46 | $500 | +$251.05 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $249.9 | — | -$250.9 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99¢ | $109.89 | $111 | +$1.11 | 48% 1035-1129 (2164) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | $85 | -$3.5 | 50% 224-222 (446) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | — | -$45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $42.5 | $85 | +$41.5 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 47.8¢ | $72.71 | $76.03 | +$3.32 | 53% 1383-1227 (2610) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 40.8¢ | $67.65 | — | -$67.65 | 52% 3892-3651 (7543) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 50.9¢ | $27.72 | $38.15 | +$10.43 | 47% 832-938 (1770) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 68.7¢ | $39.18 | $30 | -$9.18 | 51% 1437-1363 (2800) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $13.48 | $38.48 | +$25.01 | 60% 2128-1425 (3553) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 86.5¢ | $26.57 | $22.35 | -$4.22 | 67% 1964-988 (2952) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $10 | $20 | +$10 | 44% 1127-1429 (2556) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 76.9¢ | $16.21 | $16.24 | +$0.03 | 62% 2249-1386 (3635) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 79.3¢ | $16.95 | — | -$12 | 53% 1222-1079 (2301) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $7.92 | $8 | +$0.08 | 62% 1352-844 (2196) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 66.2¢ | $4.2 | — | -$4.2 | 39% 722-1145 (1867) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 33¢ | $3.3 | — | -$3.3 | 50% 1033-1042 (2075) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $1.86 | $9.79 | +$7.93 | 47% 1449-1613 (3062) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$5.37
Record
61%
23-15 (38)
Both legs:
Invested
$624.69
Value
$631
PnL
+$6.31
Record
57%
4449-3308 (7757)
Invested
$558.6
Value
$570
PnL
+$11.4
Record
98%
2090-43 (2133)
BoneOhioInvested
$508.64
Value
$513.78
PnL
+$5.14
Record
74%
897-310 (1207)
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$521.15
Value
$500
PnL
+$0.15
Record
57%
2260-1719 (3979)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.89
Value
$111
PnL
+$1.11
Record
48%
1035-1129 (2164)
Invested
$90
Value
$85
PnL
-$3.5
Record
50%
224-222 (446)
Both legs:
Invested
$72.71
Value
$76.03
PnL
+$3.32
Record
53%
1383-1227 (2610)
Invested
$67.65
Value
—
PnL
-$67.65
Record
52%
3892-3651 (7543)
Invested
$27.72
Value
$38.15
PnL
+$10.43
Record
47%
832-938 (1770)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$39.18
Value
$30
PnL
-$9.18
Record
51%
1437-1363 (2800)
Invested
$13.48
Value
$38.48
PnL
+$25.01
Record
60%
2128-1425 (3553)
Invested
$26.57
Value
$22.35
PnL
-$4.22
Record
67%
1964-988 (2952)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$10
Value
$20
PnL
+$10
Record
44%
1127-1429 (2556)
Invested
$16.21
Value
$16.24
PnL
+$0.03
Record
62%
2249-1386 (3635)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$16.95
Value
—
PnL
-$12
Record
53%
1222-1079 (2301)
Invested
$7.92
Value
$8
PnL
+$0.08
Record
62%
1352-844 (2196)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.2
Value
—
PnL
-$4.2
Record
39%
722-1145 (1867)
Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
-$3.3
Record
50%
1033-1042 (2075)
Invested
$1.86
Value
$9.79
PnL
+$7.93
Record
47%
1449-1613 (3062)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
Up — $631
hoodquant
Up — $570
BoneOhio
Up — $513.78
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $111
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
Up — $76.03
blue.birds
CTRDown — $0