Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
17
Up 71%
3 arb excluded
$2.8K
$13.41
Smart Money Signal
12 of 17 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$7.98 | 61% 23-15 (38) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $702.4 | $1.4K | +$699.33 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $702.09 | β | -$707.31 | |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50Β’ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | β |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.8Β’ | $510.45 | $498.54 | +$4.75 | 57% 2260-1719 (3979) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 49.8Β’ | $248.48 | β | -$246.25 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49.8Β’ | $248.29 | $498.54 | +$251 | |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 51.7Β’ | $114.6 | $96 | -$18.6 | 52% 3892-3651 (7543) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 51.7Β’ | $71.9 | β | -$71.9 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 44.5Β’ | $42.7 | $96 | +$53.3 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Upavg 99Β’ | $109.89 | $111 | +$1.11 | 48% 1035-1129 (2164) |
![]() Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 50.2Β’ | $46.45 | $46.73 | +$21.07 | 53% 1222-1079 (2301) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 51.2Β’ | $37.96 | $38.86 | +$0.9 | 53% 1383-1227 (2610) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 31.9Β’ | $29.41 | $50.56 | +$21.15 | 47% 832-938 (1770) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 38Β’ | $27.7 | β | -$27.7 | 44% 1127-1429 (2556) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Downavg 25Β’ | $12.5 | β | -$12.5 | 53% 560-498 (1058) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 55Β’ | $8.25 | $15 | +$6.75 | 46% 1103-1315 (2418) |
![]() BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 63Β’ | $9.45 | $15 | +$5.55 | 74% 897-310 (1207) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 58Β’ | $11.6 | β | -$11.6 | 47% 1150-1313 (2463) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 59Β’ | $11.8 | $20 | +$8.2 | 57% 4449-3308 (7757) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 97Β’ | $12.61 | $13 | +$0.39 | 62% 2249-1386 (3635) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 73.3Β’ | $8.94 | $12.19 | +$3.25 | 51% 1437-1363 (2800) |
BO Bonereaper<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $6.93 | $7 | +$0.07 | 60% 570-387 (957) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $6.93 | $7 | +$0.07 | 98% 2090-43 (2133) |
![]() ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 37Β’ | $1.85 | β | -$1.85 | 48% 1128-1223 (2351) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 27Β’ | $1.45 | β | -$1.45 | 67% 1964-988 (2952) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$7.98
Record
61%
23-15 (38)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
β
Invested
$510.45
Value
$498.54
PnL
+$4.75
Record
57%
2260-1719 (3979)
Both legs:
Invested
$114.6
Value
$96
PnL
-$18.6
Record
52%
3892-3651 (7543)
Both legs:
Invested
$109.89
Value
$111
PnL
+$1.11
Record
48%
1035-1129 (2164)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$46.45
Value
$46.73
PnL
+$21.07
Record
53%
1222-1079 (2301)
Invested
$37.96
Value
$38.86
PnL
+$0.9
Record
53%
1383-1227 (2610)
Invested
$29.41
Value
$50.56
PnL
+$21.15
Record
47%
832-938 (1770)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$27.7
Value
β
PnL
-$27.7
Record
44%
1127-1429 (2556)
Invested
$12.5
Value
β
PnL
-$12.5
Record
53%
560-498 (1058)
Invested
$8.25
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.75
Record
46%
1103-1315 (2418)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$9.45
Value
$15
PnL
+$5.55
Record
74%
897-310 (1207)
Invested
$11.6
Value
β
PnL
-$11.6
Record
47%
1150-1313 (2463)
Invested
$11.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$8.2
Record
57%
4449-3308 (7757)
Invested
$12.61
Value
$13
PnL
+$0.39
Record
62%
2249-1386 (3635)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$8.94
Value
$12.19
PnL
+$3.25
Record
51%
1437-1363 (2800)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.07
Record
60%
570-387 (957)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.07
Record
98%
2090-43 (2133)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$1.85
Value
β
PnL
-$1.85
Record
48%
1128-1223 (2351)
Invested
$1.45
Value
β
PnL
-$1.45
Record
67%
1964-988 (2952)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage β excluded
QuantumPebble673
Up β $500
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
blue.birds
ARBArbitrage β excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up β $111

Polkadot-Frog
Up β $46.73
ply-pm2
Up β $38.86
rabadabadoo
Up β $50.56

G-Penis-Monster
CTRDown β $0
Little-big
CTRDown β $0