Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 29% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
24
Up 29%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
$-1.8K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 24 top traders (29%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 61% 23-15 (38) |
HC Hcrystallash | Downavg 98.9¢ | $624.14 | $631 | +$6.86 | 57% 4449-3308 (7757) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $504.5 | $498.08 | -$5.42 | 57% 2260-1719 (3979) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $249.04 | $498.08 | +$249.08 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $254.5 | — | -$254.5 | |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 55¢ | $214.34 | $295.99 | +$106.85 | 50% 1033-1042 (2075) |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 94.8¢ | $96.44 | $100.18 | +$3.74 | 34% 575-1141 (1716) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | $90 | +$0.6 | 50% 224-222 (446) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $87.39 | $174.2 | +$86.81 | 48% 1035-1129 (2164) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 95.4¢ | $37.72 | $31.67 | -$6.05 | 53% 1383-1227 (2610) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $29.74 | $30.4 | +$0.66 | 52% 3892-3651 (7543) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 94¢ | $60.5 | $30 | -$10.77 | 53% 1222-1079 (2301) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $26.54 | $52 | +$25.46 | 48% 1986-2186 (4172) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 96¢ | $23.04 | $24 | +$0.96 | 98% 2090-43 (2133) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $14.99 | $15 | +$0.02 | 48% 760-838 (1598) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.1¢ | $10.68 | — | -$10.68 | 44% 1127-1429 (2556) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $9.05 | $8 | -$1.05 | 51% 1437-1363 (2800) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 38% 576-948 (1524) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 15¢ | $8.42 | — | -$8.42 | 38% 411-683 (1094) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 58.3¢ | $6.5 | $7.2 | +$0.7 | 47% 832-938 (1770) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 67% 1964-988 (2952) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $4.9 | $5 | +$0.1 | 62% 2249-1386 (3635) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 98.5¢ | $4.93 | $5 | +$0.08 | 60% 2128-1425 (3553) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 62% 1352-844 (2196) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $1.29 | — | -$1.29 | 39% 722-1145 (1867) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 46.9¢ | $18.75 | — | -$18.75 | 48% 650-716 (1366) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
61%
23-15 (38)
Invested
$624.14
Value
$631
PnL
+$6.86
Record
57%
4449-3308 (7757)
Invested
$504.5
Value
$498.08
PnL
-$5.42
Record
57%
2260-1719 (3979)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$214.34
Value
$295.99
PnL
+$106.85
Record
50%
1033-1042 (2075)
pspspsps5Invested
$96.44
Value
$100.18
PnL
+$3.74
Record
34%
575-1141 (1716)
Invested
$90
Value
$90
PnL
+$0.6
Record
50%
224-222 (446)
Invested
$87.39
Value
$174.2
PnL
+$86.81
Record
48%
1035-1129 (2164)
Invested
$37.72
Value
$31.67
PnL
-$6.05
Record
53%
1383-1227 (2610)
Invested
$29.74
Value
$30.4
PnL
+$0.66
Record
52%
3892-3651 (7543)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$60.5
Value
$30
PnL
-$10.77
Record
53%
1222-1079 (2301)
Invested
$26.54
Value
$52
PnL
+$25.46
Record
48%
1986-2186 (4172)
Invested
$23.04
Value
$24
PnL
+$0.96
Record
98%
2090-43 (2133)
Invested
$14.99
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.02
Record
48%
760-838 (1598)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$10.68
Value
—
PnL
-$10.68
Record
44%
1127-1429 (2556)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.05
Value
$8
PnL
-$1.05
Record
51%
1437-1363 (2800)
Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
38%
576-948 (1524)
Invested
$8.42
Value
—
PnL
-$8.42
Record
38%
411-683 (1094)
Invested
$6.5
Value
$7.2
PnL
+$0.7
Record
47%
832-938 (1770)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
67%
1964-988 (2952)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.1
Record
62%
2249-1386 (3635)
Invested
$4.93
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.08
Record
60%
2128-1425 (3553)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
62%
1352-844 (2196)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.29
Value
—
PnL
-$1.29
Record
39%
722-1145 (1867)
Invested
$18.75
Value
—
PnL
-$18.75
Record
48%
650-716 (1366)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
Hcrystallash
Down — $631
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
Down — $295.99
pspspsps5
Down — $100.18
devonpoll
Down — $90
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $174.2
ply-pm2
Down — $31.67
blue.birds
Down — $30.4