Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
15
Up 53%
4 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$64.89
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$1.54 | 61% 23-15 (38) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $730.29 | β | -$739.09 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $729.81 | $1.5K | +$737.55 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 49.5Β’ | $502.4 | $497.97 | -$3.31 | 57% 2260-1719 (3979) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 49.5Β’ | $252.4 | β | -$252.4 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $248.99 | $497.97 | +$249.09 | |
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | β |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $250 | β | -$250 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $250 | $500 | +$250 | |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 53.9Β’ | $99 | $95.11 | -$1.49 | 50% 224-222 (446) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 53.9Β’ | $51.3 | $95.11 | +$43.51 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $45 | β | -$45 | |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 34.5Β’ | $66.23 | β | -$16.28 | 53% 1222-1079 (2301) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.5Β’ | $22.62 | β | -$22.62 | 52% 3892-3651 (7543) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 56.3Β’ | $23.16 | $23.62 | +$0.46 | 47% 832-938 (1770) |
![]() BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 76Β’ | $15.34 | $15 | -$0.34 | 74% 897-310 (1207) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 71Β’ | $11.67 | $10 | -$1.67 | 62% 2249-1386 (3635) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 50.2Β’ | $11.42 | $22.76 | +$11.34 | 60% 2128-1425 (3553) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Upavg 44Β’ | $8.8 | $20 | +$11.2 | 48% 1128-1223 (2351) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 73Β’ | $12.02 | $11 | -$1.02 | 67% 1964-988 (2952) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 56Β’ | $8.4 | β | -$8.4 | 53% 1383-1227 (2610) |
SU suntori<$100 | Upavg 52.8Β’ | $11.55 | $4.65 | +$8.5 | 47% 1449-1613 (3062) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 74Β’ | $4.44 | $6 | +$1.56 | 39% 722-1145 (1867) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 64Β’ | $3.2 | β | -$3.2 | 46% 1103-1315 (2418) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 3Β’ | $0.15 | β | -$0.15 | 51% 1437-1363 (2800) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 28.6Β’ | $41.45 | β | -$41.45 | 50% 1033-1042 (2075) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 17.6Β’ | $2.82 | β | -$2.82 | 47% 1289-1465 (2754) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$1.54
Record
61%
23-15 (38)
Both legs:
Invested
$502.4
Value
$497.97
PnL
-$3.31
Record
57%
2260-1719 (3979)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
β
Both legs:
Invested
$99
Value
$95.11
PnL
-$1.49
Record
50%
224-222 (446)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$66.23
Value
β
PnL
-$16.28
Record
53%
1222-1079 (2301)
Invested
$22.62
Value
β
PnL
-$22.62
Record
52%
3892-3651 (7543)
Invested
$23.16
Value
$23.62
PnL
+$0.46
Record
47%
832-938 (1770)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$15.34
Value
$15
PnL
-$0.34
Record
74%
897-310 (1207)
Invested
$11.67
Value
$10
PnL
-$1.67
Record
62%
2249-1386 (3635)
Invested
$11.42
Value
$22.76
PnL
+$11.34
Record
60%
2128-1425 (3553)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
$20
PnL
+$11.2
Record
48%
1128-1223 (2351)
Invested
$12.02
Value
$11
PnL
-$1.02
Record
67%
1964-988 (2952)
Invested
$8.4
Value
β
PnL
-$8.4
Record
53%
1383-1227 (2610)
Invested
$11.55
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$8.5
Record
47%
1449-1613 (3062)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.44
Value
$6
PnL
+$1.56
Record
39%
722-1145 (1867)
Invested
$3.2
Value
β
PnL
-$3.2
Record
46%
1103-1315 (2418)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.15
Value
β
PnL
-$0.15
Record
51%
1437-1363 (2800)
Invested
$41.45
Value
β
PnL
-$41.45
Record
50%
1033-1042 (2075)
Invested
$2.82
Value
β
PnL
-$2.82
Record
47%
1289-1465 (2754)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded
QuantumPebble673
ARBArbitrage β excluded
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage β excluded

Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown β $0
blue.birds
CTRDown β $0
rabadabadoo
Up β $23.62

BoneOhio
Up β $15
drfc4eybh7i8
Up β $10
aaa221
Up β $22.76