Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (100%). 11 of 19 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Down (58%) · Down at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 58%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$12.34

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down11 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,229

Combined PnL-$23.91

Up8 traders

Total Value$729.88

Total Shares730

Combined PnL+$11.58

Down — 58%Up — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0.31	63% 19-11 (30)
QU QuantumPebble673	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Downavg 49.3¢	$503.8	$496.8	-$0.9	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
DE devonpoll<$100	Upavg 50.4¢	$95.5	$95.18	+$5.36	50% 216-217 (433)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 99¢	$75.15	$75.53	+$0.38	57% 4445-3303 (7748)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 32.1¢	$57.66	$47.92	-$9.74	52% 3880-3635 (7515)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 51.7¢	$32.34	$27.93	-$4.41	53% 1371-1214 (2585)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$22.29	$25.24	+$2.94	53% 1210-1069 (2279)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 43.2¢	$28.12	$24.14	-$3.98	47% 823-928 (1751)
SU suntori<$100	Upavg 80.9¢	$13.06	$16.14	+$3.08	47% 1401-1566 (2967)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$13.67	$13.41	-$0.26	60% 2106-1411 (3517)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$9.06	$8.31	-$0.75	47% 1270-1451 (2721)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$8	$6.4	-$1.6	46% 1093-1302 (2395)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 67.5¢	$6.75	$5.95	-$0.8	44% 1117-1407 (2524)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$4.95	$4.93	-$0.03	62% 1338-834 (2172)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 87¢	$3.98	$4.57	+$0.59	67% 1947-979 (2926)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 55¢	$2.75	$0.9	-$1.42	62% 2224-1373 (3597)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 10.8¢	$0.68	$0.35	-$0.33	51% 1422-1352 (2774)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$0.29	$0.15	-$0.15	34% 571-1123 (1694)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0.31

Record

63%

19-11 (30)

QuantumPebble673

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Down

Invested

$503.8

Value

$496.8

PnL

-$0.9

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

devonpoll<$100

Invested

$95.5

Value

$95.18

PnL

+$5.36

Record

50%

216-217 (433)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$75.15

Value

$75.53

PnL

+$0.38

Record

57%

4445-3303 (7748)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$57.66

Value

$47.92

PnL

-$9.74

Record

52%

3880-3635 (7515)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$32.34

Value

$27.93

PnL

-$4.41

Record

53%

1371-1214 (2585)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$22.29

Value

$25.24

PnL

+$2.94

Record

53%

1210-1069 (2279)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$28.12

Value

$24.14

PnL

-$3.98

Record

47%

823-928 (1751)

suntori<$100

Invested

$13.06

Value

$16.14

PnL

+$3.08

Record

47%

1401-1566 (2967)

aaa221CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.67

Value

$13.41

PnL

-$0.26

Record

60%

2106-1411 (3517)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$9.06

Value

$8.31

PnL

-$0.75

Record

47%

1270-1451 (2721)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$1.6

Record

46%

1093-1302 (2395)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.75

Value

$5.95

PnL

-$0.8

Record

44%

1117-1407 (2524)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.93

PnL

-$0.03

Record

62%

1338-834 (2172)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$3.98

Value

$4.57

PnL

+$0.59

Record

67%

1947-979 (2926)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.75

Value

$0.9

PnL

-$1.42

Record

62%

2224-1373 (3597)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.68

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$0.33

Record

51%

1422-1352 (2774)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.29

Value

$0.15

PnL

-$0.15

Record

34%

571-1123 (1694)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 19 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Up 100%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.