Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET
Resolved Down. 35% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 38%
2 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$634.89
Smart Money Signal
6 of 17 top traders (35%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$1.32 | 63% 19-11 (30) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $505.3 | $490 | -$10.6 | 57% 2241-1691 (3932) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490 | +$244.7 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $255.3 | — | -$255.3 | |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $92.53 | $90 | +$0.12 | 50% 216-217 (433) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | $90 | +$45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.8¢ | $45 | — | -$44.88 | |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 38.7¢ | $44.71 | — | -$44.71 | 53% 1210-1069 (2279) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 21.3¢ | $16.42 | $40 | +$23.58 | 52% 3880-3635 (7515) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 40.7¢ | $26.29 | — | -$26.29 | 53% 1371-1214 (2585) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $24.4 | — | -$24.4 | 46% 1093-1302 (2395) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 67.8¢ | $13.33 | — | -$13.33 | 60% 2106-1411 (3517) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 96.8¢ | $20.06 | $12.05 | -$7.73 | 67% 1947-979 (2926) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 70.4¢ | $7.79 | $11.06 | +$3.27 | 62% 1338-834 (2172) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $8.25 | — | -$8.25 | 47% 1145-1296 (2441) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.3¢ | $14.64 | — | -$14.64 | 48% 754-833 (1587) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $5 | +$0.15 | 39% 713-1130 (1843) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 38¢ | $4.2 | $11.05 | +$6.85 | 47% 823-928 (1751) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $4.65 | — | -$3.55 | 62% 2224-1373 (3597) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.9¢ | $5.28 | — | -$5.28 | 51% 1422-1352 (2774) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $0.3 | — | -$0.3 | 47% 1845-2082 (3927) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 61.7¢ | $21.6 | — | -$21.6 | 48% 1113-1213 (2326) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$1.32
Record
63%
19-11 (30)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$505.3
Value
$490
PnL
-$10.6
Record
57%
2241-1691 (3932)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.53
Value
$90
PnL
+$0.12
Record
50%
216-217 (433)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$44.71
Value
—
PnL
-$44.71
Record
53%
1210-1069 (2279)
Invested
$16.42
Value
$40
PnL
+$23.58
Record
52%
3880-3635 (7515)
Invested
$26.29
Value
—
PnL
-$26.29
Record
53%
1371-1214 (2585)
Invested
$24.4
Value
—
PnL
-$24.4
Record
46%
1093-1302 (2395)
Invested
$13.33
Value
—
PnL
-$13.33
Record
60%
2106-1411 (3517)
Invested
$20.06
Value
$12.05
PnL
-$7.73
Record
67%
1947-979 (2926)
Invested
$7.79
Value
$11.06
PnL
+$3.27
Record
62%
1338-834 (2172)
Invested
$8.25
Value
—
PnL
-$8.25
Record
47%
1145-1296 (2441)
Invested
$14.64
Value
—
PnL
-$14.64
Record
48%
754-833 (1587)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$4.85
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.15
Record
39%
713-1130 (1843)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$11.05
PnL
+$6.85
Record
47%
823-928 (1751)
Invested
$4.65
Value
—
PnL
-$3.55
Record
62%
2224-1373 (3597)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$5.28
Value
—
PnL
-$5.28
Record
51%
1422-1352 (2774)
Invested
$0.3
Value
—
PnL
-$0.3
Record
47%
1845-2082 (3927)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$21.6
Value
—
PnL
-$21.6
Record
48%
1113-1213 (2326)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
blue.birds
Down — $40
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
asdaefef
Down — $12.05