Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
Resolved Down. 65% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$488.48
Smart Money Signal
11 of 17 top traders (65%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$1.09 | 63% 19-11 (30) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.2¢ | $503.3 | $495.01 | -$1.2 | 57% 2241-1691 (3932) |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 81.8¢ | $143.19 | $170 | +$26.81 | 50% 1015-1025 (2040) |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | $90 | +$0.75 | 50% 216-217 (433) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | $90 | +$45 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $42.5 | — | -$44.25 | |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 81¢ | $50.7 | $45 | +$8.25 | 52% 3880-3635 (7515) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 66.2¢ | $87.57 | $30 | -$6.22 | 53% 1210-1069 (2279) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $21.78 | $22 | +$0.22 | 98% 2083-42 (2125) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $18.92 | $20 | +$1.08 | 53% 1371-1214 (2585) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 83¢ | $10.93 | $13.17 | +$2.24 | 67% 1947-979 (2926) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $5.75 | $5 | -$0.75 | 51% 1422-1352 (2774) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $3.24 | — | -$3.24 | 57% 4445-3303 (7748) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $2.69 | — | -$2.69 | 47% 823-928 (1751) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $4 | $5.13 | +$1.13 | 62% 2224-1373 (3597) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.6¢ | $3.03 | — | -$3.03 | 34% 571-1123 (1694) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 84¢ | $0.63 | $0.75 | +$0.12 | 60% 2106-1411 (3517) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 39% 713-1130 (1843) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 22¢ | $8.8 | — | -$8.8 | 44% 1117-1407 (2524) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$1.09
Record
63%
19-11 (30)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$503.3
Value
$495.01
PnL
-$1.2
Record
57%
2241-1691 (3932)
Invested
$143.19
Value
$170
PnL
+$26.81
Record
50%
1015-1025 (2040)
Invested
$90
Value
$90
PnL
+$0.75
Record
50%
216-217 (433)
Both legs:
Invested
$50.7
Value
$45
PnL
+$8.25
Record
52%
3880-3635 (7515)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$87.57
Value
$30
PnL
-$6.22
Record
53%
1210-1069 (2279)
Invested
$21.78
Value
$22
PnL
+$0.22
Record
98%
2083-42 (2125)
Invested
$18.92
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.08
Record
53%
1371-1214 (2585)
Invested
$10.93
Value
$13.17
PnL
+$2.24
Record
67%
1947-979 (2926)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.75
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.75
Record
51%
1422-1352 (2774)
Invested
$3.24
Value
—
PnL
-$3.24
Record
57%
4445-3303 (7748)
Invested
$2.69
Value
—
PnL
-$2.69
Record
47%
823-928 (1751)
Invested
$4
Value
$5.13
PnL
+$1.13
Record
62%
2224-1373 (3597)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$3.03
Value
—
PnL
-$3.03
Record
34%
571-1123 (1694)
Invested
$0.63
Value
$0.75
PnL
+$0.12
Record
60%
2106-1411 (3517)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
39%
713-1130 (1843)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$8.8
Value
—
PnL
-$8.8
Record
44%
1117-1407 (2524)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.4K
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $495.01
uninformedfloww
Down — $170
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
blue.birds
Down — $45
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $30
hoodquant
Down — $22
ply-pm2
Down — $20
asdaefef
Down — $13.17