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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

5

Up 60%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$3.31

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 5 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up3 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares43

Combined PnL-$8.41

Down2 traders

Total Value$15

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$5.1

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0.51	63% 19-11 (30)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$737.5	$1.5K	+$747.55
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$739.42	—	-$748.06
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$500	+$250
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$490	-$0.6	57% 2241-1691 (3932)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$245	$490	+$249.4
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	—	-$250
DE devonpollARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$90	$90	+$0	50% 216-217 (433)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$45	$90	+$45
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$45	—	-$45
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4.8¢	$0.97	—	-$0.97	48% 754-833 (1587)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 40¢	$6	—	-$6	53% 1371-1214 (2585)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 51¢	$5.1	$10	+$4.9	48% 1024-1120 (2144)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 18.7¢	$1.44	—	-$1.44	53% 1210-1069 (2279)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 96¢	$4.8	$5	+$0.2	62% 2224-1373 (3597)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0.51

Record

63%

19-11 (30)

Both legs:

Down$737.550¢+$747.55

Up$739.4250¢-$748.06

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$250

Up$25050¢-$250

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$490

PnL

-$0.6

Record

57%

2241-1691 (3932)

Both legs:

Down$24550¢+$249.4

Up$25050¢-$250

devonpollARB<$100

Invested

$90

Value

$90

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

216-217 (433)

Both legs:

Down$4550¢+$45

Invested

$0.97

Value

—

PnL

-$0.97

Record

48%

754-833 (1587)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$6

Value

—

PnL

-$6

Record

53%

1371-1214 (2585)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$5.1

Value

$10

PnL

+$4.9

Record

48%

1024-1120 (2144)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

—

PnL

-$1.44

Record

53%

1210-1069 (2279)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$4.8

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.2

Record

62%

2224-1373 (3597)

Smart Money Signal

Up

3 of 5 top traders (60%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x4314ead5...456756

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794462000

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Arbitrage — excluded

QuantumPebble673

Arbitrage — excluded

ByteBadger92

Arbitrage — excluded

devonpoll

Arbitrage — excluded

0x50f7

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $10

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $5

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