Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 53%
2 arb excluded
$2.3K
-$534.47
Smart Money Signal
9 of 17 top traders (53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$9.3 | — 6-0 (6) |
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | — | -$500 | — |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $504.87 | $497.95 | +$0.87 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $248.97 | $497.95 | +$249.14 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $249.89 | — | -$248.27 | |
DE devonpollARB<$100 | Upavg 50.1¢ | $92.65 | $90 | -$2.65 | 49% 201-206 (407) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.1¢ | $47.65 | — | -$47.65 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $45 | $90 | +$45 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $71.05 | $72.5 | +$1.45 | 98% 2057-41 (2098) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 54.6¢ | $40.21 | $39.85 | +$2.22 | 47% 799-905 (1704) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 81.1¢ | $32.14 | $26 | -$6.14 | 53% 1336-1174 (2510) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Downavg 70.4¢ | $26.83 | $25 | -$1.83 | 52% 3844-3594 (7438) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 64¢ | $16 | — | -$16 | 50% 977-986 (1963) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 41.9¢ | $7.01 | $16.75 | +$9.74 | 39% 691-1090 (1781) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $15.57 | — | -$13.71 | 60% 2054-1370 (3424) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 82¢ | $4.15 | $5.06 | +$0.91 | 67% 1888-951 (2839) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 40¢ | $3.96 | $5 | +$4.04 | 53% 1174-1043 (2217) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 61% 1295-819 (2114) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Upavg 23.9¢ | $8.99 | — | -$8.99 | 38% 399-656 (1055) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $2.5 | — | -$2.5 | 57% 4432-3287 (7719) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $4.19 | — | -$4.19 | 51% 1380-1304 (2684) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 27.1¢ | $5.42 | — | -$5.42 | 48% 1088-1178 (2266) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 66.1¢ | $3.4 | — | -$3.4 | 62% 2140-1336 (3476) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$9.3
Record
—
6-0 (6)
Invested
$500
Value
—
PnL
-$500
Record
—
Invested
$504.87
Value
$497.95
PnL
+$0.87
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.65
Value
$90
PnL
-$2.65
Record
49%
201-206 (407)
Both legs:
Invested
$71.05
Value
$72.5
PnL
+$1.45
Record
98%
2057-41 (2098)
Invested
$40.21
Value
$39.85
PnL
+$2.22
Record
47%
799-905 (1704)
Invested
$32.14
Value
$26
PnL
-$6.14
Record
53%
1336-1174 (2510)
Invested
$26.83
Value
$25
PnL
-$1.83
Record
52%
3844-3594 (7438)
Invested
$16
Value
—
PnL
-$16
Record
50%
977-986 (1963)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$7.01
Value
$16.75
PnL
+$9.74
Record
39%
691-1090 (1781)
Invested
$15.57
Value
—
PnL
-$13.71
Record
60%
2054-1370 (3424)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$5.06
PnL
+$0.91
Record
67%
1888-951 (2839)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$3.96
Value
$5
PnL
+$4.04
Record
53%
1174-1043 (2217)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
61%
1295-819 (2114)
Invested
$8.99
Value
—
PnL
-$8.99
Record
38%
399-656 (1055)
Invested
$2.5
Value
—
PnL
-$2.5
Record
57%
4432-3287 (7719)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.19
Value
—
PnL
-$4.19
Record
51%
1380-1304 (2684)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$5.42
Value
—
PnL
-$5.42
Record
48%
1088-1178 (2266)
Invested
$3.4
Value
—
PnL
-$3.4
Record
62%
2140-1336 (3476)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.5K
QuantumPebble673
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
devonpoll
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $72.5
rabadabadoo
Down — $39.85
ply-pm2
Down — $26
blue.birds
Down — $25
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $16.75