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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET

Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Up 50%

Total Value

$159.51

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Signal

Up

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares2,824
Combined PnL$-2.6K
Down7 traders
Total Value$159.51
Total Shares160
Combined PnL+$16.05
Up — 50%Down — 50%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR
Up

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

—

6-0 (6)

QU
QuantumPebble673CTR
Up

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

BY
ByteBadger92CTR
Up

Invested

$503

Value

—

PnL

-$495.53

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

Polkadot-Frog<$100
Down

Invested

$62.42

Value

$39.01

PnL

-$3.42

Record

53%

1174-1043 (2217)

BL
blue.birds<$100
Down

Invested

$26.14

Value

$36.74

PnL

+$10.6

Record

52%

3844-3594 (7438)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Down

Invested

$34.11

Value

$30.31

PnL

-$3.8

Record

53%

1336-1174 (2510)

AA
aaa221<$100
Down

Invested

$24.79

Value

$33.13

PnL

+$8.34

Record

60%

2054-1370 (3424)

RA
rabadabadooCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$26.01

Value

—

PnL

-$17.7

Record

47%

799-905 (1704)

MayorMamdani<$100
Down

Invested

$10.33

Value

$10.14

PnL

+$2.44

Record

51%

1380-1304 (2684)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$3.85

Value

$5.07

PnL

+$1.22

Record

62%

2140-1336 (3476)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$4.45

Value

$5.11

PnL

+$0.66

Record

67%

1888-951 (2839)

E8
0xe8d6...c964CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.55

Value

—

PnL

-$2.55

Record

53%

540-472 (1012)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$73.27

Value

—

PnL

-$73.27

Record

50%

977-986 (1963)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$2.45

Value

—

PnL

-$2.45

Record

39%

691-1090 (1781)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xfe5bf804...d90578
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1794456300

Traders in this Market

0X

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.5K
QU

QuantumPebble673

CTR

Up — $0

-$500
BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Up — $0

-$495.53

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $39.01

-$3.42
BL

blue.birds

Down — $36.74

+$10.6
PL

ply-pm2

Down — $30.31

-$3.8
AA

aaa221

Down — $33.13

+$8.34
RA

rabadabadoo

CTR

Up — $0

-$17.7

MayorMamdani

Down — $10.14

+$2.44
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $5.07

+$1.22
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