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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET

Resolved Down. 62% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Up 62%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,131

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Down5 traders

Total Value$77.88

Total Shares78

Combined PnL+$32.47

Up — 62%Down — 38%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$3.12	— 6-0 (6)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$750	$1.5K	+$750
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$746	—	-$746.88
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	—	-$500	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR	Upavg 49.8¢	$513.59	—	-$501.79	57% 2190-1623 (3813)
BL blue.birdsARB<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$102.69	$100.78	-$1.91	52% 3844-3594 (7438)
└ Down leg	Downavg 61.2¢	$61.65	$100.78	+$39.13
└ Up leg	Upavg 36¢	$41.04	—	-$41.04
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$35.89	—	-$35.89	53% 1174-1043 (2217)
PB PBot-5<$100	Downavg 49¢	$17.15	$35	+$17.85	47% 623-690 (1313)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 90.3¢	$10.12	$11.2	+$1.08	62% 2140-1336 (3476)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 42.3¢	$6.44	$15.23	+$8.79	47% 799-905 (1704)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$8.07	$8.04	-$0.03	47% 727-804 (1531)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 44¢	$8.8	—	-$8.8	44% 1079-1378 (2457)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 58¢	$8.7	—	-$8.7	53% 1336-1174 (2510)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Upavg 32¢	$6.4	—	-$6.4	47% 1112-1258 (2370)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 43.1¢	$3.63	$8.41	+$4.78	46% 1064-1272 (2336)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Upavg 47.8¢	$10.91	—	-$6.32	60% 2054-1370 (3424)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$4.67	—	-$4.67	47% 1320-1474 (2794)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$3.12

Record

—

6-0 (6)

Both legs:

Down$75050¢+$750

Up$74650¢-$746.88

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

—

PnL

-$500

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR

Invested

$513.59

Value

—

PnL

-$501.79

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

blue.birdsARB<$100

Invested

$102.69

Value

$100.78

PnL

-$1.91

Record

52%

3844-3594 (7438)

Both legs:

Down$61.6561.2¢+$39.13

Up$41.0436¢-$41.04

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$35.89

Value

—

PnL

-$35.89

Record

53%

1174-1043 (2217)

Invested

$17.15

Value

$35

PnL

+$17.85

Record

47%

623-690 (1313)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$10.12

Value

$11.2

PnL

+$1.08

Record

62%

2140-1336 (3476)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$6.44

Value

$15.23

PnL

+$8.79

Record

47%

799-905 (1704)

Invested

$8.07

Value

$8.04

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

727-804 (1531)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$8.8

Value

—

PnL

-$8.8

Record

44%

1079-1378 (2457)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

—

PnL

-$8.7

Record

53%

1336-1174 (2510)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$6.4

Value

—

PnL

-$6.4

Record

47%

1112-1258 (2370)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$8.41

PnL

+$4.78

Record

46%

1064-1272 (2336)

Invested

$10.91

Value

—

PnL

-$6.32

Record

60%

2054-1370 (3424)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$4.67

Value

—

PnL

-$4.67

Record

47%

1320-1474 (2794)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 13 top traders (62%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0x263c45ab...c75493

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794455400

Traders in this Market

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Arbitrage — excluded

QuantumPebble673

Up — $0

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

blue.birds

Arbitrage — excluded

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

PBot-5

Down — $35

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $11.2

rabadabadoo

Down — $15.23

0x50f7

Down — $8.04

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

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