Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 5 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Up (33%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$1.81

Smart Money Entry

42.2¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up5 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,356

Combined PnL-$10.1

Down10 traders

Total Value$278.37

Total Shares287

Combined PnL+$8.3

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$10.44	— 6-0 (6)
QU QuantumPebble673CTR	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	—
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.1¢	$501.02	$497.57	-$2.45	58% 2058-1520 (3578)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.1¢	$251.02	$373.53	+$122.51
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$248.08	$124.04	-$124.96
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 99¢	$92.84	$93.31	+$0.47	74% 773-277 (1050)
DE devonpoll<$100	Downavg 50¢	$90	$88.93	-$0.02	—
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 81.7¢	$49.14	$44.67	-$4.47	53% 1273-1127 (2400)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 41.3¢	$10.45	$20	+$9.55	46% 569-681 (1250)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$15.11	$17	+$1.89	47% 629-703 (1332)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 65¢	$8.33	$8.68	+$0.35	52% 3819-3574 (7393)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 42¢	$5.04	$6.42	+$1.38	43% 227-296 (523)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Downavg 77¢	$4.32	$5.61	+$1.29	—
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.93	-$0.02	66% 1796-933 (2729)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 75¢	$3.75	$3.73	-$0.02	62% 2042-1276 (3318)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 87¢	$17.05	$3.1	-$0.19	53% 1148-1015 (2163)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 11.5¢	$1.79	$0.39	-$1.4	52% 725-659 (1384)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$0.4	$0.25	-$0.15	34% 554-1063 (1617)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$10.44

Record

—

6-0 (6)

QuantumPebble673CTR

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

—

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$501.02

Value

$497.57

PnL

-$2.45

Record

58%

2058-1520 (3578)

Both legs:

Down$251.0250.1¢+$122.51

Up$248.0850¢-$124.96

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$92.84

Value

$93.31

PnL

+$0.47

Record

74%

773-277 (1050)

devonpoll<$100

Down

Invested

$90

Value

$88.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

—

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$49.14

Value

$44.67

PnL

-$4.47

Record

53%

1273-1127 (2400)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$10.45

Value

$20

PnL

+$9.55

Record

46%

569-681 (1250)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$15.11

Value

$17

PnL

+$1.89

Record

47%

629-703 (1332)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$8.33

Value

$8.68

PnL

+$0.35

Record

52%

3819-3574 (7393)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$5.04

Value

$6.42

PnL

+$1.38

Record

43%

227-296 (523)

rabadabadoo<$100

Down

Invested

$4.32

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$1.29

Record

—

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.93

PnL

-$0.02

Record

66%

1796-933 (2729)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$3.75

Value

$3.73

PnL

-$0.02

Record

62%

2042-1276 (3318)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$17.05

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.19

Record

53%

1148-1015 (2163)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$1.79

Value

$0.39

PnL

-$1.4

Record

52%

725-659 (1384)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.15

Record

34%

554-1063 (1617)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 15 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.