Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Down 63%
1 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$609.23
Smart Money Signal
10 of 16 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$0.47 | — 6-0 (6) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $748.23 | $1.5K | +$748.47 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $748.08 | — | -$748 | |
QU QuantumPebble673 | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92CTR | Downavg 50¢ | $505.09 | — | -$500.22 | 58% 2058-1520 (3578) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $90 | — | -$85.8 | — |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 81.1¢ | $40.55 | $50 | +$9.45 | 46% 569-681 (1250) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 57¢ | $25.65 | $45 | +$19.35 | 52% 3819-3574 (7393) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $30.66 | — | -$25.91 | 53% 1148-1015 (2163) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $14.25 | $15.32 | +$1.07 | 66% 1796-933 (2729) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $12.3 | — | -$11.3 | — |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $7.05 | — | -$7.05 | 53% 1273-1127 (2400) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $3.93 | $5.73 | +$1.8 | — |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $2.73 | — | -$2.73 | 47% 604-672 (1276) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 2.8¢ | $4.75 | — | -$4.75 | 47% 629-703 (1332) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $5 | +$2.3 | 62% 2042-1276 (3318) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 31¢ | $1.8 | — | -$1.8 | 39% 676-1067 (1743) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 9.8¢ | $2.04 | — | -$2.04 | 52% 725-659 (1384) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 8¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 43% 227-296 (523) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$0.47
Record
—
6-0 (6)
Both legs:
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$505.09
Value
—
PnL
-$500.22
Record
58%
2058-1520 (3578)
Invested
$90
Value
—
PnL
-$85.8
Record
—
Invested
$40.55
Value
$50
PnL
+$9.45
Record
46%
569-681 (1250)
Invested
$25.65
Value
$45
PnL
+$19.35
Record
52%
3819-3574 (7393)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$30.66
Value
—
PnL
-$25.91
Record
53%
1148-1015 (2163)
Invested
$14.25
Value
$15.32
PnL
+$1.07
Record
66%
1796-933 (2729)
Invested
$12.3
Value
—
PnL
-$11.3
Record
—
Invested
$7.05
Value
—
PnL
-$7.05
Record
53%
1273-1127 (2400)
Invested
$3.93
Value
$5.73
PnL
+$1.8
Record
—
Invested
$2.73
Value
—
PnL
-$2.73
Record
47%
604-672 (1276)
Invested
$4.75
Value
—
PnL
-$4.75
Record
47%
629-703 (1332)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.3
Record
62%
2042-1276 (3318)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.8
Value
—
PnL
-$1.8
Record
39%
676-1067 (1743)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.04
Value
—
PnL
-$2.04
Record
52%
725-659 (1384)
Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
43%
227-296 (523)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
QuantumPebble673
Up — $500
ByteBadger92
CTRDown — $0
devonpoll
CTRDown — $0
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $50
blue.birds
Up — $45
Polkadot-Frog
CTRDown — $0
asdaefef
Up — $15.32
aaa221
CTRDown — $0
ply-pm2
CTRDown — $0