Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
12
Up 55%
$60.8
-$16.94
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.2¢ | $13.75 | — | -$13.75 | 52% 3801-3556 (7357) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $13 | $14.38 | +$1.43 | 62% 2020-1262 (3282) |
BA 0xba67...4727<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $10.75 | $15 | +$4.25 | — |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 67.8¢ | $7.25 | $10.7 | +$3.45 | 66% 1776-921 (2697) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $10.21 | — | -$10.21 | 53% 1134-1003 (2137) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 57¢ | $8.55 | $15 | +$6.45 | 53% 1258-1114 (2372) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $2.3 | $5.11 | +$2.81 | 39% 666-1044 (1710) |
82 0x828b...a12bCTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $1.45 | — | -$1.45 | — |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 3¢ | $1.53 | — | -$1.53 | 47% 619-701 (1320) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $0.45 | $0.61 | +$0.16 | 48% 1014-1081 (2095) |
F8 0xf8af...54c6CTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | — |
DC 0xdc3f...4fa0CTR<$100 | Upavg 33.9¢ | $7.55 | — | -$7.55 | — |
Invested
$13.75
Value
—
PnL
-$13.75
Record
52%
3801-3556 (7357)
Invested
$13
Value
$14.38
PnL
+$1.43
Record
62%
2020-1262 (3282)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$15
PnL
+$4.25
Record
—
Invested
$7.25
Value
$10.7
PnL
+$3.45
Record
66%
1776-921 (2697)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$10.21
Value
—
PnL
-$10.21
Record
53%
1134-1003 (2137)
Invested
$8.55
Value
$15
PnL
+$6.45
Record
53%
1258-1114 (2372)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$2.3
Value
$5.11
PnL
+$2.81
Record
39%
666-1044 (1710)
Invested
$1.45
Value
—
PnL
-$1.45
Record
—
Invested
$1.53
Value
—
PnL
-$1.53
Record
47%
619-701 (1320)
ohioism<$100Invested
$0.45
Value
$0.61
PnL
+$0.16
Record
48%
1014-1081 (2095)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
—
Invested
$7.55
Value
—
PnL
-$7.55
Record
—