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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

17

Up 71%

Total Value

$250.85

Combined PnL

-$234.28

Smart Money Signal

Up

12 of 17 top traders (71%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up12 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares562

Combined PnL-$349.48

Down5 traders

Total Value$250.85

Total Shares251

Combined PnL+$115.19

Up — 71%Down — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BL blue.birdsCTR	Upavg 59.5¢	$188.85	—	-$188.85	52% 3801-3556 (7357)
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 60.3¢	$102.07	$98.29	-$3.78	53% 1258-1114 (2372)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 21.9¢	$33.53	—	-$14.28	44% 990-1249 (2239)
42 0x424e...263b<$100	Downavg 12.9¢	$10.95	$85	+$74.05	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 44.3¢	$56.5	—	-$43.33	50% 1317-1303 (2620)
ohioismCTR<$100	Upavg 55.3¢	$27.7	—	-$24.46	48% 1014-1081 (2095)
DC 0xdc3f...4fa0CTR<$100	Upavg 57.5¢	$20.7	—	-$20.7	—
5D 0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$5.42	—	-$2.77	—
AS asdaefefCTR<$100	Upavg 91.7¢	$20.34	—	-$20.34	66% 1776-921 (2697)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 48.1¢	$7.01	$14.59	+$7.58	62% 2020-1262 (3282)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 99¢	$13.25	$8.48	-$4.77	98% 1899-39 (1938)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 52¢	$2.73	—	-$2.73	57% 4408-3274 (7682)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 5.3¢	$2.38	$44.5	+$42.12	39% 666-1044 (1710)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 88.1¢	$31.05	—	-$26.15	53% 1134-1003 (2137)
BA 0xba67...4727CTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$3	—	-$3	—
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$2.55	—	-$2.55	61% 1240-802 (2042)
F8 0xf8af...54c6CTR<$100	Upavg 17¢	$0.33	—	-$0.33	—

Invested

$188.85

Value

—

PnL

-$188.85

Record

52%

3801-3556 (7357)

Invested

$102.07

Value

$98.29

PnL

-$3.78

Record

53%

1258-1114 (2372)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$33.53

Value

—

PnL

-$14.28

Record

44%

990-1249 (2239)

0x424e...263b<$100

Invested

$10.95

Value

$85

PnL

+$74.05

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$56.5

Value

—

PnL

-$43.33

Record

50%

1317-1303 (2620)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$27.7

Value

—

PnL

-$24.46

Record

48%

1014-1081 (2095)

0xdc3f...4fa0CTR<$100

Invested

$20.7

Value

—

PnL

-$20.7

Record

—

0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100

Invested

$5.42

Value

—

PnL

-$2.77

Record

—

asdaefefCTR<$100

Invested

$20.34

Value

—

PnL

-$20.34

Record

66%

1776-921 (2697)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$7.01

Value

$14.59

PnL

+$7.58

Record

62%

2020-1262 (3282)

Invested

$13.25

Value

$8.48

PnL

-$4.77

Record

98%

1899-39 (1938)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$2.73

Value

—

PnL

-$2.73

Record

57%

4408-3274 (7682)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$2.38

Value

$44.5

PnL

+$42.12

Record

39%

666-1044 (1710)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$31.05

Value

—

PnL

-$26.15

Record

53%

1134-1003 (2137)

0xba67...4727CTR<$100

Invested

$3

Value

—

PnL

-$3

Record

—

asidjasiodjaCTR<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

—

PnL

-$2.55

Record

61%

1240-802 (2042)

0xf8af...54c6CTR<$100

Invested

$0.33

Value

—

PnL

-$0.33

Record

—

Smart Money Signal

Up

12 of 17 top traders (71%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0570407f...aa93e0

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794450600

Traders in this Market

blue.birds

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $98.29

G-Penis-Monster

Up — $0

0x424e...263b

Down — $85

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

ohioism

Up — $0

0xdc3f...4fa0

Up — $0

0x5d4a...55d3

Up — $0

asdaefef

Up — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $14.59

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