Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET

18 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 100¢ · $735 held · ended Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 75%

Total Value

$734.57

Combined PnL

-$43.73

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 99.5¢

+23% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 24 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down18 traders

Total Value$713.32

Total Shares717

Combined PnL-$48.02

Up6 traders

Total Value$21.25

Total Shares100

Combined PnL+$4.29

Down — 75%Up — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedfloww	Downavg 79.6¢	$303.2	$163.75	-$63.35	49% 767-785 (1552)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 79.6¢	$102.39	$103.2	+$0.8	50% 1317-1303 (2620)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 81.1¢	$71.55	$74.32	+$2.77	52% 3801-3556 (7357)
HO hoodquant<$100	Downavg 97.9¢	$69.53	$70.65	+$1.11	98% 1899-39 (1938)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 83.8¢	$67.99	$65.16	-$2.83	53% 1258-1114 (2372)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 79.3¢	$47.34	$47.03	-$0.31	48% 1014-1081 (2095)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 63.2¢	$21.09	$28.87	+$7.78	44% 990-1249 (2239)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 92.2¢	$24.05	$25	+$0.95	53% 1134-1003 (2137)
5E 0x5e8e...8212<$100	Downavg 89.9¢	$18.45	$20.42	+$1.97	—
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 72.4¢	$14.35	$17.09	+$2.74	62% 2020-1262 (3282)
DC 0xdc3f...4fa0<$100	Downavg 79.3¢	$27.85	$15.87	-$3.54	—
F8 0xf8af...54c6<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$16.65	$15.25	-$1.4	—
42 0x424e...263b<$100	Downavg 80¢	$13.89	$14.44	+$0.55	—
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 84.9¢	$11.96	$12.41	+$0.45	61% 1240-802 (2042)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 60¢	$9.82	$11.65	+$1.83	39% 666-1044 (1710)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 74.8¢	$8.63	$11.48	+$2.85	66% 1776-921 (2697)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 57¢	$9.57	$8.63	-$0.94	57% 4408-3274 (7682)
D8 0xd8f1...74a9<$100	Downavg 74.1¢	$7.56	$8.12	+$0.55	—
BA 0xba67...4727CTR<$100	Upavg 14¢	$2.8	$7.9	+$5.1	—
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$5.16	$6	+$0.84	47% 593-667 (1260)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$4.9	$5.22	+$0.31	48% 1430-1573 (3003)
21 0x21d0...e8d7CTR<$100	Upavg 48¢	$0.92	$0.96	+$0.04	—
82 0x828b...a12bCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$1.05	$0.92	-$0.13	—
5D 0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100	Upavg 4.2¢	$2.12	$0.25	-$1.87	—

uninformedfloww

Down

Invested

$303.2

Value

$163.75

PnL

-$63.35

Record

49%

767-785 (1552)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$102.39

Value

$103.2

PnL

+$0.8

Record

50%

1317-1303 (2620)

blue.birds<$100

Down

Invested

$71.55

Value

$74.32

PnL

+$2.77

Record

52%

3801-3556 (7357)

hoodquant<$100

Down

Invested

$69.53

Value

$70.65

PnL

+$1.11

Record

98%

1899-39 (1938)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$67.99

Value

$65.16

PnL

-$2.83

Record

53%

1258-1114 (2372)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$47.34

Value

$47.03

PnL

-$0.31

Record

48%

1014-1081 (2095)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$21.09

Value

$28.87

PnL

+$7.78

Record

44%

990-1249 (2239)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Down

Invested

$24.05

Value

$25

PnL

+$0.95

Record

53%

1134-1003 (2137)

0x5e8e...8212<$100

Down

Invested

$18.45

Value

$20.42

PnL

+$1.97

Record

—

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$14.35

Value

$17.09

PnL

+$2.74

Record

62%

2020-1262 (3282)

0xdc3f...4fa0<$100

Down

Invested

$27.85

Value

$15.87

PnL

-$3.54

Record

—

0xf8af...54c6<$100

Down

Invested

$16.65

Value

$15.25

PnL

-$1.4

Record

—

0x424e...263b<$100

Down

Invested

$13.89

Value

$14.44

PnL

+$0.55

Record

—

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$11.96

Value

$12.41

PnL

+$0.45

Record

61%

1240-802 (2042)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$9.82

Value

$11.65

PnL

+$1.83

Record

39%

666-1044 (1710)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$8.63

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$2.85

Record

66%

1776-921 (2697)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$9.57

Value

$8.63

PnL

-$0.94

Record

57%

4408-3274 (7682)

0xd8f1...74a9<$100

Down

Invested

$7.56

Value

$8.12

PnL

+$0.55

Record

—

0xba67...4727CTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$7.9

PnL

+$5.1

Record

—

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

PnL

+$0.84

Record

47%

593-667 (1260)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$0.31

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

0x21d0...e8d7CTR<$100

Invested

$0.92

Value

$0.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

—

0x828b...a12bCTR<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$0.13

Record

—

0x5d4a...55d3CTR<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$1.87

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

18 of 24 top traders (75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.