Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET

Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

16

Up 60%

Total Value

$229.39

Combined PnL

-$161.09

Smart Money Signal

Up

10 of 16 top traders (63%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down6 traders

Total Value$229.39

Total Shares229

Combined PnL+$79.04

Up10 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,073

Combined PnL-$240.14

Down — 38%Up — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
wowitsamazing<$100	Downavg 30.2¢	$26	$86.21	+$60.21	44% 87-113 (200)
D8 0xd8f1...74a9<$100	Downavg 79.5¢	$42.27	$53.18	+$10.91	—
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 98¢	$50.02	$35	-$0.17	39% 666-1044 (1710)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 60.8¢	$36.7	—	-$36.7	53% 1258-1114 (2372)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 88.4¢	$39.65	$30	-$4.9	53% 1134-1003 (2137)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 40.8¢	$8.15	$20	+$11.85	44% 990-1249 (2239)
E8 0xe8d6...c964CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$9.64	—	-$9.64	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 51.7¢	$20.72	—	-$20.72	50% 1317-1303 (2620)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$7.96	—	-$7.96	57% 4408-3274 (7682)
DC 0xdc3f...4fa0CTR<$100	Upavg 37¢	$4.25	—	-$4.25	—
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 43¢	$4.3	—	-$4.3	58% 2028-1497 (3525)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 77¢	$3.85	$5	+$1.15	62% 2020-1262 (3282)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$3.06	—	-$3.06	47% 619-701 (1320)
82 0x828b...a12bCTR<$100	Upavg 19¢	$1	—	-$1	—
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 19¢	$152.13	—	-$152.13	49% 767-785 (1552)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$0.38	—	-$0.38	48% 1430-1573 (3003)

wowitsamazing<$100

Invested

$26

Value

$86.21

PnL

+$60.21

Record

44%

87-113 (200)

0xd8f1...74a9<$100

Invested

$42.27

Value

$53.18

PnL

+$10.91

Record

—

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$50.02

Value

$35

PnL

-$0.17

Record

39%

666-1044 (1710)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$36.7

Value

—

PnL

-$36.7

Record

53%

1258-1114 (2372)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$39.65

Value

$30

PnL

-$4.9

Record

53%

1134-1003 (2137)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$8.15

Value

$20

PnL

+$11.85

Record

44%

990-1249 (2239)

0xe8d6...c964CTR<$100

Invested

$9.64

Value

—

PnL

-$9.64

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$20.72

Value

—

PnL

-$20.72

Record

50%

1317-1303 (2620)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$7.96

Value

—

PnL

-$7.96

Record

57%

4408-3274 (7682)

0xdc3f...4fa0CTR<$100

Invested

$4.25

Value

—

PnL

-$4.25

Record

—

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$4.3

Value

—

PnL

-$4.3

Record

58%

2028-1497 (3525)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$3.85

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.15

Record

62%

2020-1262 (3282)

Invested

$3.06

Value

—

PnL

-$3.06

Record

47%

619-701 (1320)

0x828b...a12bCTR<$100

Invested

$1

Value

—

PnL

-$1

Record

—

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$152.13

Value

—

PnL

-$152.13

Record

49%

767-785 (1552)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$0.38

Value

—

PnL

-$0.38

Record

48%

1430-1573 (3003)

Smart Money Signal

Up

10 of 16 top traders (63%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xbcbce9e1...4c4b58

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794450000

Traders in this Market

wowitsamazing

Down — $86.21

0xd8f1...74a9

Down — $53.18

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $35

ply-pm2

Up — $0

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $30

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $20

0xe8d6...c964

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

Hcrystallash

Up — $0

0xdc3f...4fa0

Up — $0

Trade on Polymarket