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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET

Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

18

Down 65%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$412.15

Combined PnL

-$99.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

11 of 18 top traders (61%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders
Total Value$361.8
Total Shares362
Combined PnL+$84.06
Down11 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares625
Combined PnL-$183.2
Up — 39%Down — 61%
BL
blue.birds
Up

Invested

$96.82

Value

$117.33

PnL

+$20.51

Record

52%

3801-3556 (7357)

E9
0xe907...cff6
Up

Invested

$18.69

Value

$101.47

PnL

+$82.78

Record

—

AS
asdcaxz
Up

Invested

$121.62

Value

$84.54

PnL

-$34.45

Record

49%

3495-3600 (7095)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100
Up

Invested

$63.44

Value

$50.34

PnL

-$13.1

Record

53%

1134-1003 (2137)

Both legs:

Down$2754¢-$27
Up$36.4472.4¢+$13.9
DC
0xdc3f...4fa0<$100
Up

Invested

$27.25

Value

$27.73

PnL

+$0.48

Record

—

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$23.53

Value

$23.92

PnL

+$7.83

Record

62%

2020-1262 (3282)

PL
ply-pm2CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$16.12

Value

—

PnL

-$16.12

Record

53%

1258-1114 (2372)

BoneOhioCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$34.99

Value

—

PnL

-$34.99

Record

73%

753-272 (1025)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$16.24

Value

—

PnL

-$16.24

Record

38%

459-750 (1209)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$13.5

Value

—

PnL

-$13.5

Record

44%

990-1249 (2239)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Up

Invested

$3.85

Value

$6.81

PnL

+$2.96

Record

61%

1240-802 (2042)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$18.49

Value

—

PnL

-$4.09

Record

66%

1776-921 (2697)

pspspsps5CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$5.35

Value

—

PnL

-$5.35

Record

34%

549-1045 (1594)

ohioismCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$7.2

Value

—

PnL

-$7.2

Record

48%

1014-1081 (2095)

BA
0xba67...4727CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$5.8

Value

—

PnL

-$5.8

Record

—

42
0x424e...263bCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$19.13

Value

—

PnL

-$19.13

Record

—

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$60.24

Value

—

PnL

-$60.24

Record

49%

767-785 (1552)

D8
0xd8f1...74a9CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.54

Value

—

PnL

-$0.54

Record

—

BY
ByteBadger92<$100
Up

Invested

$8.4

Value

—

PnL

+$3.95

Record

58%

2028-1497 (3525)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0xe3173ca7...a91a13
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1794447600

Traders in this Market

BL

blue.birds

Up — $117.33

+$20.51
E9

0xe907...cff6

Up — $101.47

+$82.78
AS

asdcaxz

Up — $84.54

-$34.45

Polkadot-Frog

ARB

Arbitrage — excluded

-$13.1
DC

0xdc3f...4fa0

Up — $27.73

+$0.48
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $23.92

+$7.83
PL

ply-pm2

CTR

Down — $0

-$16.12

BoneOhio

CTR

Down — $0

-$34.99
0X

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

CTR

Down — $0

-$16.24

G-Penis-Monster

CTR

Down — $0

-$13.5
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