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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET

Resolved Up. 33% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 33%

Total Value

$283.6

Combined PnL

-$95.92

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 12 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up8 traders

Total Value$283.6

Total Shares284

Combined PnL+$34.83

Down4 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares558

Combined PnL-$130.75

Up — 67%Down — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BoneOhio<$100	Upavg 99¢	$66.15	$66.82	+$0.67	74% 738-260 (998)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 80.6¢	$69.68	$55	-$1.33	49% 3456-3566 (7022)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 76.5¢	$52.2	$55	+$7	52% 3766-3522 (7288)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 82.7¢	$37.2	$45	+$7.8	53% 1101-972 (2073)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 80.7¢	$16.08	$18.92	+$2.84	53% 1226-1085 (2311)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 83¢	$12.45	$15	+$2.55	48% 980-1048 (2028)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 43.6¢	$9.96	$22.86	+$12.9	48% 969-1064 (2033)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 52¢	$2.6	$5	+$2.4	48% 583-642 (1225)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 12¢	$1.44	—	-$1.44	40% 649-994 (1643)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 24.7¢	$132.86	—	-$132.86	50% 732-740 (1472)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 10¢	$1.39	—	+$3.61	58% 1973-1454 (3427)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	38% 697-1139 (1836)

Invested

$66.15

Value

$66.82

PnL

+$0.67

Record

74%

738-260 (998)

Invested

$69.68

Value

$55

PnL

-$1.33

Record

49%

3456-3566 (7022)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$52.2

Value

$55

PnL

+$7

Record

52%

3766-3522 (7288)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$37.2

Value

$45

PnL

+$7.8

Record

53%

1101-972 (2073)

Invested

$16.08

Value

$18.92

PnL

+$2.84

Record

53%

1226-1085 (2311)

Invested

$12.45

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.55

Record

48%

980-1048 (2028)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$9.96

Value

$22.86

PnL

+$12.9

Record

48%

969-1064 (2033)

Invested

$2.6

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.4

Record

48%

583-642 (1225)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.44

Value

—

PnL

-$1.44

Record

40%

649-994 (1643)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$132.86

Value

—

PnL

-$132.86

Record

50%

732-740 (1472)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$1.39

Value

—

PnL

+$3.61

Record

58%

1973-1454 (3427)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

38%

697-1139 (1836)

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 12 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x8aa16169...9bde8a

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794443700

Traders in this Market

BoneOhio

Up — $66.82

asdcaxz

Up — $55

blue.birds

Up — $55

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $45

ply-pm2

Up — $18.92

ohioism

Up — $15

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $22.86

PBot-5

Up — $5

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

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