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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Up 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$246.25

Combined PnL

-$451.42

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up6 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares657

Combined PnL-$463.79

Down4 traders

Total Value$185.06

Total Shares185

Combined PnL+$12.37

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Upavg 62¢	$410.37	—	-$361.32	50% 732-740 (1472)
HO hoodquant	Downavg 99¢	$109.89	$111	+$1.11	98% 1855-39 (1894)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 35.2¢	$86.35	—	-$86.35	49% 3456-3566 (7022)
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100	Upavg 66.5¢	$65.38	$61.19	-$4.19	53% 1226-1085 (2311)
└ Up leg	Upavg 66.5¢	$45.84	—	-$45.84
└ Down leg	Downavg 31.9¢	$19.54	$61.19	+$41.65
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 61.2¢	$49.29	$44.06	-$5.23	52% 3766-3522 (7288)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 65.7¢	$17.03	—	-$12.83	53% 1101-972 (2073)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 37¢	$6.31	$10	+$3.69	40% 649-994 (1643)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 36¢	$7.2	$20	+$12.8	44% 955-1216 (2171)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Upavg 49¢	$2.81	—	-$2.81	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$0.4	—	-$0.4	35% 538-1000 (1538)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 41¢	$0.07	—	-$0.07	58% 1973-1454 (3427)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$410.37

Value

—

PnL

-$361.32

Record

50%

732-740 (1472)

Invested

$109.89

Value

$111

PnL

+$1.11

Record

98%

1855-39 (1894)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$86.35

Value

—

PnL

-$86.35

Record

49%

3456-3566 (7022)

ply-pm2ARB<$100

Invested

$65.38

Value

$61.19

PnL

-$4.19

Record

53%

1226-1085 (2311)

Both legs:

Up$45.8466.5¢-$45.84

Down$19.5431.9¢+$41.65

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$49.29

Value

$44.06

PnL

-$5.23

Record

52%

3766-3522 (7288)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$17.03

Value

—

PnL

-$12.83

Record

53%

1101-972 (2073)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$6.31

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.69

Record

40%

649-994 (1643)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$7.2

Value

$20

PnL

+$12.8

Record

44%

955-1216 (2171)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

—

PnL

-$2.81

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.4

Value

—

PnL

-$0.4

Record

35%

538-1000 (1538)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$0.07

Value

—

PnL

-$0.07

Record

58%

1973-1454 (3427)

Smart Money Signal

Up

6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xb0688659...501862

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794443400

Traders in this Market

uninformedfloww

Up — $0

hoodquant

Down — $111

asdcaxz

Up — $0

ply-pm2

Arbitrage — excluded

blue.birds

Down — $44.06

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $10

G-Penis-Monster

Down — $20

38791873984189

Up — $0

pspspsps5

Up — $0

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