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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET

Resolved Up. 42% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

12

Down 42%

Total Value

$359.02

Combined PnL

-$116.22

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 12 top traders (42%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$359.02

Total Shares359

Combined PnL+$10.51

Down5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares556

Combined PnL-$126.72

Up — 58%Down — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxz	Upavg 58.4¢	$128.71	$116.87	+$13.34	49% 3456-3566 (7022)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$79.38	$81	+$1.62	98% 1855-39 (1894)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 72.6¢	$71.89	$69.15	-$2.74	50% 1269-1265 (2534)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 97.4¢	$71.71	$35	-$17.08	53% 1101-972 (2073)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 71¢	$23.9	$30	+$6.1	52% 3766-3522 (7288)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 70¢	$12.57	$15	+$2.43	53% 1226-1085 (2311)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$6.74	—	-$6.74	48% 969-1064 (2033)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 43¢	$5.16	$12	+$6.84	57% 4386-3257 (7643)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$15.35	—	-$5.9	48% 980-1048 (2028)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 4.6¢	$3.62	—	-$3.62	35% 538-1000 (1538)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 30.1¢	$106.4	—	-$106.4	50% 732-740 (1472)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 4.3¢	$4.07	—	-$4.07	40% 649-994 (1643)

Invested

$128.71

Value

$116.87

PnL

+$13.34

Record

49%

3456-3566 (7022)

Invested

$79.38

Value

$81

PnL

+$1.62

Record

98%

1855-39 (1894)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$71.89

Value

$69.15

PnL

-$2.74

Record

50%

1269-1265 (2534)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$71.71

Value

$35

PnL

-$17.08

Record

53%

1101-972 (2073)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$23.9

Value

$30

PnL

+$6.1

Record

52%

3766-3522 (7288)

Invested

$12.57

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.43

Record

53%

1226-1085 (2311)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$6.74

Value

—

PnL

-$6.74

Record

48%

969-1064 (2033)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$5.16

Value

$12

PnL

+$6.84

Record

57%

4386-3257 (7643)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$15.35

Value

—

PnL

-$5.9

Record

48%

980-1048 (2028)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$3.62

Value

—

PnL

-$3.62

Record

35%

538-1000 (1538)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$106.4

Value

—

PnL

-$106.4

Record

50%

732-740 (1472)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$4.07

Value

—

PnL

-$4.07

Record

40%

649-994 (1643)

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 12 top traders (42%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xe98651fd...ceb5c1

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794442500

Traders in this Market

asdcaxz

Up — $116.87

hoodquant

Up — $81

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $69.15

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $35

blue.birds

Up — $30

ply-pm2

Up — $15

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $0

Hcrystallash

Up — $12

ohioism

Down — $0

pspspsps5

Down — $0

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