Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET

7 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Up (39%) · Up at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 11

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 39%

Total Value

$4.6K

Combined PnL

-$261.9

Smart Money Entry

99.4¢ → 100¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares4,447

Combined PnL-$3.21

Down11 traders

Total Value$117.51

Total Shares1,020

Combined PnL-$258.69

Up — 39%Down — 61%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$7.52	47% 593-674 (1267)
BoneOhio	Upavg 99¢	$777.84	$785.31	+$7.46	74% 723-254 (977)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$443.52	$447.78	+$4.26	98% 1837-39 (1876)
pspspsps5	Upavg 99¢	$137.27	$131.27	-$6.01	35% 531-973 (1504)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 73.9¢	$38.18	$40.47	+$5.31	49% 3432-3549 (6981)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 98.8¢	$67.45	$32.83	-$6.72	53% 1080-957 (2037)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 47.2¢	$26.77	$28.36	+$1.59	48% 575-634 (1209)
AL almachCTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$21.3	$23.15	+$1.85	46% 613-725 (1338)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$16.66	$17	+$0.34	57% 4377-3250 (7627)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 45.3¢	$13.79	$15.24	+$1.45	48% 950-1050 (2000)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$9.8	$10	+$0.2	44% 945-1197 (2142)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 47¢	$7.05	$7.5	+$0.45	53% 1206-1070 (2276)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$6	$6.13	+$0.13	48% 962-1040 (2002)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$4.6	$5	+$0.4	58% 1948-1427 (3375)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 17.3¢	$10.81	$3.43	-$7.38	40% 643-968 (1611)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$1.5	$1.35	-$0.15	52% 3739-3509 (7248)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 98¢	$0.98	$0.99	+$0.01	37% 435-728 (1163)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 36.6¢	$257.92	$0.35	-$257.56	49% 706-726 (1432)

0x50f7

Invested

$3,005

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$7.52

Record

47%

593-674 (1267)

BoneOhio

Invested

$777.84

Value

$785.31

PnL

+$7.46

Record

74%

723-254 (977)

hoodquant

Invested

$443.52

Value

$447.78

PnL

+$4.26

Record

98%

1837-39 (1876)

pspspsps5

Invested

$137.27

Value

$131.27

PnL

-$6.01

Record

35%

531-973 (1504)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$38.18

Value

$40.47

PnL

+$5.31

Record

49%

3432-3549 (6981)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$67.45

Value

$32.83

PnL

-$6.72

Record

53%

1080-957 (2037)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$26.77

Value

$28.36

PnL

+$1.59

Record

48%

575-634 (1209)

almachCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$21.3

Value

$23.15

PnL

+$1.85

Record

46%

613-725 (1338)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$16.66

Value

$17

PnL

+$0.34

Record

57%

4377-3250 (7627)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$13.79

Value

$15.24

PnL

+$1.45

Record

48%

950-1050 (2000)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.8

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.2

Record

44%

945-1197 (2142)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.05

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.45

Record

53%

1206-1070 (2276)

ohioismCTR<$100

Down

Invested

Value

$6.13

PnL

+$0.13

Record

48%

962-1040 (2002)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

58%

1948-1427 (3375)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$10.81

Value

$3.43

PnL

-$7.38

Record

40%

643-968 (1611)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

3739-3509 (7248)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$0.98

Value

$0.99

PnL

+$0.01

Record

37%

435-728 (1163)

uninformedflowwCTR

Down

Invested

$257.92

Value

$0.35

PnL

-$257.56

Record

49%

706-726 (1432)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 18 top traders (39%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.