Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
Resolved Up. 77% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Down 75%
$46.58
-$389.74
Smart Money Signal
10 of 13 top traders (77%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asdcaxzCTR | Downavg 60.8¢ | $168.94 | — | -$156.64 | 49% 3432-3549 (6981) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 30.2¢ | $83.76 | — | -$83.76 | 52% 3739-3509 (7248) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.6¢ | $58.17 | — | -$54.07 | 53% 1080-957 (2037) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 51.9¢ | $46.65 | — | -$46.65 | 53% 1206-1070 (2276) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Downavg 40.8¢ | $28.7 | — | -$28.7 | 48% 575-634 (1209) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 78.5¢ | $15.7 | $20 | +$4.3 | 74% 723-254 (977) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 35¢ | $7 | — | -$7 | 48% 962-1040 (2002) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 83.7¢ | $18.06 | $21.58 | +$3.52 | 40% 643-968 (1611) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 61¢ | $6.05 | $5 | -$1.05 | 45% 619-745 (1364) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $1.75 | — | -$1.75 | 44% 945-1197 (2142) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $4.99 | — | -$4.99 | 38% 687-1125 (1812) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 14.4¢ | $20.29 | — | -$20.29 | 49% 706-726 (1432) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Downavg 45¢ | $9.4 | — | +$7.34 | 58% 1948-1427 (3375) |
Invested
$168.94
Value
—
PnL
-$156.64
Record
49%
3432-3549 (6981)
Invested
$83.76
Value
—
PnL
-$83.76
Record
52%
3739-3509 (7248)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$58.17
Value
—
PnL
-$54.07
Record
53%
1080-957 (2037)
Invested
$46.65
Value
—
PnL
-$46.65
Record
53%
1206-1070 (2276)
Invested
$28.7
Value
—
PnL
-$28.7
Record
48%
575-634 (1209)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$15.7
Value
$20
PnL
+$4.3
Record
74%
723-254 (977)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$7
Value
—
PnL
-$7
Record
48%
962-1040 (2002)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$18.06
Value
$21.58
PnL
+$3.52
Record
40%
643-968 (1611)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.05
Record
45%
619-745 (1364)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$1.75
Value
—
PnL
-$1.75
Record
44%
945-1197 (2142)
Invested
$4.99
Value
—
PnL
-$4.99
Record
38%
687-1125 (1812)
Invested
$20.29
Value
—
PnL
-$20.29
Record
49%
706-726 (1432)
Invested
$9.4
Value
—
PnL
+$7.34
Record
58%
1948-1427 (3375)