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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET

Resolved Up. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

10

Down 60%

Total Value

$297.65

Combined PnL

-$31.27

Smart Money Signal

Down

6 of 10 top traders (60%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders
Total Value$297.65
Total Shares298
Combined PnL+$17.93
Down6 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares120
Combined PnL-$49.2
Up — 40%Down — 60%
AS
asdcaxz
Up

Invested

$102.77

Value

$105

PnL

+$2.23

Record

49%

3410-3533 (6943)

Polkadot-Frog
Up

Invested

$88.15

Value

$100

PnL

+$16.05

Record

53%

1061-944 (2005)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Up

Invested

$87.78

Value

$86.58

PnL

-$1.2

Record

53%

1194-1050 (2244)

BL
blue.birdsCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$51.25

Value

—

PnL

-$28.95

Record

52%

3722-3489 (7211)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Up

Invested

$5.22

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$0.85

Record

66%

1742-899 (2641)

ohioismCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$19.71

Value

—

PnL

-$9.04

Record

48%

948-1028 (1976)

HC
HcrystallashCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$5

Value

—

PnL

-$5

Record

57%

4366-3247 (7613)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$2.73

Value

—

PnL

-$2.73

Record

61%

1965-1241 (3206)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$2.76

Value

—

PnL

-$2.76

Record

48%

937-1035 (1972)

BY
ByteBadger92CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.72

Value

—

PnL

-$0.72

Record

58%

1912-1406 (3318)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x03a3e060...d90416
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1794435000

Traders in this Market

AS

asdcaxz

Up — $105

+$2.23

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $100

+$16.05
PL

ply-pm2

Up — $86.58

-$1.2
BL

blue.birds

CTR

Down — $0

-$28.95
AS

asdaefef

Up — $6.07

+$0.85

ohioism

CTR

Down — $0

-$9.04
HC

Hcrystallash

CTR

Down — $0

-$5
DR

drfc4eybh7i8

CTR

Down — $0

-$2.73
0X

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

CTR

Down — $0

-$2.76
BY

ByteBadger92

CTR

Down — $0

-$0.72
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