Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
Resolved Up. 61% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
18
Down 61%
$98.12
-$136.03
Smart Money Signal
11 of 18 top traders (61%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 36.6¢ | $87.76 | — | -$87.76 | 49% 3410-3533 (6943) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $34.23 | — | -$34.23 | 49% 683-704 (1387) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $7 | $20 | +$13 | 48% 948-1028 (1976) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $7.43 | $20 | +$12.57 | 52% 3722-3489 (7211) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 31.1¢ | $39.45 | — | -$34.65 | 53% 1061-944 (2005) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $15.17 | $12.06 | -$3.11 | 66% 1742-899 (2641) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 35¢ | $7 | $20 | +$13 | 44% 932-1181 (2113) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $9 | — | -$9 | 53% 1194-1050 (2244) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $5.7 | $15 | +$9.3 | 74% 712-248 (960) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $5.94 | $6.06 | +$0.12 | 61% 1209-787 (1996) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $6.7 | — | -$6.7 | 58% 1912-1406 (3318) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $4.61 | — | -$4.61 | 48% 937-1035 (1972) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 3.1¢ | $3.22 | — | -$3.22 | 46% 582-670 (1252) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 2¢ | $1.33 | — | -$1.33 | 35% 522-960 (1482) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 34¢ | $1.7 | $5 | +$3.3 | 61% 1965-1241 (3206) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $1.22 | — | -$1.22 | 57% 4366-3247 (7613) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 2.5¢ | $1.44 | — | -$1.44 | 40% 634-948 (1582) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 680-1107 (1787) |
Invested
$87.76
Value
—
PnL
-$87.76
Record
49%
3410-3533 (6943)
Invested
$34.23
Value
—
PnL
-$34.23
Record
49%
683-704 (1387)
ohioism<$100Invested
$7
Value
$20
PnL
+$13
Record
48%
948-1028 (1976)
Invested
$7.43
Value
$20
PnL
+$12.57
Record
52%
3722-3489 (7211)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$39.45
Value
—
PnL
-$34.65
Record
53%
1061-944 (2005)
Invested
$15.17
Value
$12.06
PnL
-$3.11
Record
66%
1742-899 (2641)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$7
Value
$20
PnL
+$13
Record
44%
932-1181 (2113)
Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$9
Record
53%
1194-1050 (2244)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$5.7
Value
$15
PnL
+$9.3
Record
74%
712-248 (960)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6.06
PnL
+$0.12
Record
61%
1209-787 (1996)
Invested
$6.7
Value
—
PnL
-$6.7
Record
58%
1912-1406 (3318)
Invested
$4.61
Value
—
PnL
-$4.61
Record
48%
937-1035 (1972)
Invested
$3.22
Value
—
PnL
-$3.22
Record
46%
582-670 (1252)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.33
Value
—
PnL
-$1.33
Record
35%
522-960 (1482)
Invested
$1.7
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.3
Record
61%
1965-1241 (3206)
Invested
$1.22
Value
—
PnL
-$1.22
Record
57%
4366-3247 (7613)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.44
Value
—
PnL
-$1.44
Record
40%
634-948 (1582)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
680-1107 (1787)