Database problems: some data is degraded. We're fixing it right now.

Back to Markets

Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET

Resolved Up. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

14

Down 50%

Total Value

$558.14

Combined PnL

-$312.44

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up7 traders

Total Value$558.14

Total Shares558

Combined PnL-$21.17

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares729

Combined PnL-$291.28

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$202.32	$204.36	+$2.04	98% 1814-38 (1852)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 61¢	$123.17	$109.99	-$8.93	53% 1061-944 (2005)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Upavg 99¢	$120.37	$98.98	-$21.39	48% 937-1035 (1972)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 79.4¢	$93.38	$95.5	+$16.67	49% 3410-3533 (6943)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 90¢	$24.52	$21.23	-$3.29	66% 1742-899 (2641)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 97¢	$21.3	$15	-$6.3	53% 1194-1050 (2244)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 86.2¢	$17.99	$13.07	+$0.02	61% 1965-1241 (3206)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Downavg 45¢	$5.85	—	-$5.85	47% 563-628 (1191)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 8¢	$4.81	—	-$4.81	35% 522-960 (1482)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 46¢	$4.6	—	-$4.6	58% 1912-1406 (3318)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 19.6¢	$6.02	—	-$6.02	52% 3722-3489 (7211)
UN uninformedflowwCTR	Downavg 46.5¢	$254.47	—	-$254.47	49% 683-704 (1387)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 11.9¢	$5.73	—	-$5.73	40% 634-948 (1582)
ohioismCTR<$100	Downavg 49¢	$9.8	—	-$9.8	48% 948-1028 (1976)

Invested

$202.32

Value

$204.36

PnL

+$2.04

Record

98%

1814-38 (1852)

Invested

$123.17

Value

$109.99

PnL

-$8.93

Record

53%

1061-944 (2005)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$120.37

Value

$98.98

PnL

-$21.39

Record

48%

937-1035 (1972)

Invested

$93.38

Value

$95.5

PnL

+$16.67

Record

49%

3410-3533 (6943)

Invested

$24.52

Value

$21.23

PnL

-$3.29

Record

66%

1742-899 (2641)

Invested

$21.3

Value

$15

PnL

-$6.3

Record

53%

1194-1050 (2244)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$17.99

Value

$13.07

PnL

+$0.02

Record

61%

1965-1241 (3206)

Invested

$5.85

Value

—

PnL

-$5.85

Record

47%

563-628 (1191)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

—

PnL

-$4.81

Record

35%

522-960 (1482)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

—

PnL

-$4.6

Record

58%

1912-1406 (3318)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$6.02

Value

—

PnL

-$6.02

Record

52%

3722-3489 (7211)

uninformedflowwCTR

Invested

$254.47

Value

—

PnL

-$254.47

Record

49%

683-704 (1387)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$5.73

Value

—

PnL

-$5.73

Record

40%

634-948 (1582)

ohioismCTR<$100

Invested

$9.8

Value

—

PnL

-$9.8

Record

48%

948-1028 (1976)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 14 top traders (50%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID

0xa5a1fb19...b2c088

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794434400

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $204.36

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $109.99

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $98.98

asdcaxz

Up — $95.5

asdaefef

Up — $21.23

ply-pm2

Up — $15

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $13.07

PBot-5

Down — $0

pspspsps5

Down — $0

ByteBadger92

Down — $0

Trade on Polymarket