Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
Resolved Down. 82% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 82%
1 arb excluded
$724.92
$57.86
Smart Money Signal
9 of 11 top traders (82%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 99¢ | $210.82 | $212.95 | +$2.13 | 98% 1814-38 (1852) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 83.4¢ | $134.15 | $160.85 | +$26.7 | 48% 937-1035 (1972) |
BL blue.birds | Downavg 69.8¢ | $93.13 | $110 | +$16.87 | 52% 3722-3489 (7211) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 69.8¢ | $99.37 | $85 | -$9.67 | 49% 3410-3533 (6943) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $51.72 | $47.09 | -$4.63 | 53% 1194-1050 (2244) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.4¢ | $36.91 | $47.09 | +$10.18 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 21.1¢ | $14.81 | — | -$14.81 | |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 40.6¢ | $20.84 | $51.39 | +$30.55 | 49% 683-704 (1387) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $20.81 | — | -$20.81 | 53% 1061-944 (2005) |
0X 0x50f7<$100 | Downavg 99.9¢ | $23.62 | $23.64 | +$0.02 | 46% 582-670 (1252) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 84.4¢ | $17.81 | $14 | +$0.79 | 61% 1965-1241 (3206) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $1.42 | — | -$1.42 | 35% 522-960 (1482) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $10 | +$4.2 | 58% 1912-1406 (3318) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $1.5 | $10 | +$8.5 | 40% 634-948 (1582) |
Invested
$210.82
Value
$212.95
PnL
+$2.13
Record
98%
1814-38 (1852)
Invested
$134.15
Value
$160.85
PnL
+$26.7
Record
48%
937-1035 (1972)
Invested
$93.13
Value
$110
PnL
+$16.87
Record
52%
3722-3489 (7211)
Invested
$99.37
Value
$85
PnL
-$9.67
Record
49%
3410-3533 (6943)
Invested
$51.72
Value
$47.09
PnL
-$4.63
Record
53%
1194-1050 (2244)
Both legs:
Invested
$20.84
Value
$51.39
PnL
+$30.55
Record
49%
683-704 (1387)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$20.81
Value
—
PnL
-$20.81
Record
53%
1061-944 (2005)
Invested
$23.62
Value
$23.64
PnL
+$0.02
Record
46%
582-670 (1252)
Invested
$17.81
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.79
Record
61%
1965-1241 (3206)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.42
Value
—
PnL
-$1.42
Record
35%
522-960 (1482)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$10
PnL
+$4.2
Record
58%
1912-1406 (3318)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$8.5
Record
40%
634-948 (1582)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $212.95
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $160.85
blue.birds
Down — $110
asdcaxz
Down — $85
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $51.39
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
0x50f7
Down — $23.64
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $14
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0