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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET

Resolved Down. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 53%

Total Value

$129.24

Combined PnL

-$5.34

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 15 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$129.24

Total Shares129

Combined PnL+$13.43

Up8 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares231

Combined PnL-$18.78

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$43.48	$40.32	-$3.16	51% 1009-957 (1966)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 53.2¢	$16.47	$30.47	+$14	49% 3233-3339 (6572)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 79.9¢	$29.28	$26.36	-$2.92	53% 1020-898 (1918)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 94¢	$14.4	$15.32	+$0.92	65% 1481-789 (2270)
BL blue.birds<$100	Downavg 51.5¢	$6.61	$10	+$3.39	52% 3542-3305 (6847)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 43.5¢	$8.08	—	-$8.08	53% 908-821 (1729)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 94¢	$4.7	$5	+$0.3	60% 1032-684 (1716)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 42¢	$4.13	—	-$4.13	58% 1605-1176 (2781)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 2¢	$1.32	—	-$1.32	38% 369-603 (972)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Upavg 3.6¢	$1.99	—	-$1.99	35% 429-801 (1230)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 2.6¢	$1.6	—	-$1.6	39% 508-784 (1292)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 49¢	$0.87	$1.77	+$0.9	48% 1286-1384 (2670)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.1	—	-$0.1	44% 798-998 (1796)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	39% 586-930 (1516)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Upavg 15¢	$1.5	—	-$1.5	61% 1683-1060 (2743)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$43.48

Value

$40.32

PnL

-$3.16

Record

51%

1009-957 (1966)

Invested

$16.47

Value

$30.47

PnL

+$14

Record

49%

3233-3339 (6572)

Invested

$29.28

Value

$26.36

PnL

-$2.92

Record

53%

1020-898 (1918)

Invested

$14.4

Value

$15.32

PnL

+$0.92

Record

65%

1481-789 (2270)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$6.61

Value

$10

PnL

+$3.39

Record

52%

3542-3305 (6847)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$8.08

Value

—

PnL

-$8.08

Record

53%

908-821 (1729)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$4.7

Value

$5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

60%

1032-684 (1716)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

—

PnL

-$4.13

Record

58%

1605-1176 (2781)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$1.32

Value

—

PnL

-$1.32

Record

38%

369-603 (972)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$1.99

Value

—

PnL

-$1.99

Record

35%

429-801 (1230)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$1.6

Value

—

PnL

-$1.6

Record

39%

508-784 (1292)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

$1.77

PnL

+$0.9

Record

48%

1286-1384 (2670)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$0.1

Value

—

PnL

-$0.1

Record

44%

798-998 (1796)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

586-930 (1516)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$1.5

Value

—

PnL

-$1.5

Record

61%

1683-1060 (2743)

Smart Money Signal

Up

8 of 15 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x2bff7068...09b85d

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794400200

Traders in this Market

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down — $40.32

asdcaxz

Down — $30.47

ply-pm2

Down — $26.36

asdaefef

Down — $15.32

blue.birds

Down — $10

Polkadot-Frog

Up — $0

asidjasiodja

Down — $5

ByteBadger92

Up — $0

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710

Up — $0

pspspsps5

Up — $0

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