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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET

Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Up 60%

Total Value

$254.64

Combined PnL

-$226.99

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares432

Combined PnL-$327.89

Down6 traders

Total Value$254.64

Total Shares255

Combined PnL+$100.9

Up — 60%Down — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AS asdcaxzCTR	Upavg 60.5¢	$154.99	—	-$154.99	49% 3193-3306 (6499)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR	Upavg 49.6¢	$107.16	—	-$95.76	51% 933-914 (1847)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518	Downavg 48¢	$84.94	$177	+$92.06	46% 758-894 (1652)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 86.7¢	$27.84	$23.11	-$4.73	62% 1634-1017 (2651)
0X 0x50f7<$100	Downavg 99.9¢	$19.36	$19.38	+$0.02	45% 449-558 (1007)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Upavg 63¢	$38.14	—	-$38.14	52% 3510-3269 (6779)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 98¢	$14.85	$15.15	+$0.3	65% 1431-763 (2194)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 32.5¢	$3.25	$10	+$6.75	39% 480-751 (1231)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Upavg 62.2¢	$14.9	—	-$14.9	53% 969-866 (1835)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 35¢	$3.5	$10	+$6.5	48% 779-832 (1611)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$2.71	—	-$2.71	53% 887-786 (1673)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 51¢	$2.55	—	-$2.55	58% 1531-1106 (2637)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Upavg 33¢	$6.6	—	-$6.6	45% 772-956 (1728)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	—	-$0.05	39% 572-895 (1467)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 53¢	$12.19	—	-$12.19	57% 4243-3185 (7428)

Invested

$154.99

Value

—

PnL

-$154.99

Record

49%

3193-3306 (6499)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR

Invested

$107.16

Value

—

PnL

-$95.76

Record

51%

933-914 (1847)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Invested

$84.94

Value

$177

PnL

+$92.06

Record

46%

758-894 (1652)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$27.84

Value

$23.11

PnL

-$4.73

Record

62%

1634-1017 (2651)

Invested

$19.36

Value

$19.38

PnL

+$0.02

Record

45%

449-558 (1007)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$38.14

Value

—

PnL

-$38.14

Record

52%

3510-3269 (6779)

Invested

$14.85

Value

$15.15

PnL

+$0.3

Record

65%

1431-763 (2194)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.75

Record

39%

480-751 (1231)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$14.9

Value

—

PnL

-$14.9

Record

53%

969-866 (1835)

Invested

$3.5

Value

$10

PnL

+$6.5

Record

48%

779-832 (1611)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$2.71

Value

—

PnL

-$2.71

Record

53%

887-786 (1673)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

—

PnL

-$2.55

Record

58%

1531-1106 (2637)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Invested

$6.6

Value

—

PnL

-$6.6

Record

45%

772-956 (1728)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

—

PnL

-$0.05

Record

39%

572-895 (1467)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$12.19

Value

—

PnL

-$12.19

Record

57%

4243-3185 (7428)

Smart Money Signal

Up

9 of 15 top traders (60%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0xd5a82715...3fbded

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1794391500

Traders in this Market

asdcaxz

Up — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $0

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Down — $177

drfc4eybh7i8

Down — $23.11

0x50f7

Down — $19.38

blue.birds

Up — $0

asdaefef

Down — $15.15

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $10

ply-pm2

Up — $0

ohioism

Down — $10

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