Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET
Resolved Down. 75% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 71%
1 arb excluded
$367.9
$14.35
Smart Money Signal
12 of 16 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 76.4¢ | $111.03 | $107.59 | -$3.44 | 52% 3476-3233 (6709) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 76.4¢ | $82.17 | $107.59 | +$25.42 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 17.7¢ | $28.86 | — | -$28.86 | |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 77¢ | $43.63 | $55 | +$11.37 | 49% 3158-3267 (6425) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $40 | $50 | +$10 | 75% 563-190 (753) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 48.1¢ | $30.28 | $37.08 | +$6.8 | 53% 931-840 (1771) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 92.5¢ | $35.49 | $33 | -$2.38 | 62% 1585-980 (2565) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $14.15 | $20 | +$5.85 | 48% 745-806 (1551) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 84.7¢ | $19.38 | $18.15 | -$0.66 | 65% 1384-737 (2121) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $15.74 | $16.06 | +$0.32 | 98% 1462-31 (1493) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $5.94 | $11 | +$5.06 | 57% 4217-3173 (7390) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 44¢ | $4.41 | $10.02 | +$5.61 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $8.5 | $10 | +$1.5 | 38% 449-718 (1167) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 25.5¢ | $9.68 | — | -$9.68 | 45% 744-919 (1663) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $4.9 | — | -$4.9 | 39% 547-873 (1420) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $13.16 | — | -$13.16 | 45% 722-869 (1591) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $1.06 | — | -$1.06 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | — 5-0 (5) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Downavg 85¢ | $9 | — | -$0.33 | 58% 1473-1061 (2534) |
Invested
$111.03
Value
$107.59
PnL
-$3.44
Record
52%
3476-3233 (6709)
Both legs:
Invested
$43.63
Value
$55
PnL
+$11.37
Record
49%
3158-3267 (6425)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$40
Value
$50
PnL
+$10
Record
75%
563-190 (753)
Invested
$30.28
Value
$37.08
PnL
+$6.8
Record
53%
931-840 (1771)
Invested
$35.49
Value
$33
PnL
-$2.38
Record
62%
1585-980 (2565)
ohioism<$100Invested
$14.15
Value
$20
PnL
+$5.85
Record
48%
745-806 (1551)
Invested
$19.38
Value
$18.15
PnL
-$0.66
Record
65%
1384-737 (2121)
Invested
$15.74
Value
$16.06
PnL
+$0.32
Record
98%
1462-31 (1493)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.06
Record
57%
4217-3173 (7390)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$4.41
Value
$10.02
PnL
+$5.61
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$8.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$1.5
Record
38%
449-718 (1167)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$9.68
Value
—
PnL
-$9.68
Record
45%
744-919 (1663)
Invested
$4.9
Value
—
PnL
-$4.9
Record
39%
547-873 (1420)
Invested
$13.16
Value
—
PnL
-$13.16
Record
45%
722-869 (1591)
Invested
$1.06
Value
—
PnL
-$1.06
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
5-0 (5)
Invested
$9
Value
—
PnL
-$0.33
Record
58%
1473-1061 (2534)