Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET
Resolved Down. 64% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
11
Down 64%
1 arb excluded
$432.77
-$83.68
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birds | Downavg 58.8¢ | $160.55 | $170 | +$21.75 | 52% 3430-3194 (6624) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $105.45 | $91.44 | -$14.01 | 49% 3117-3227 (6344) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 75.8¢ | $69.31 | $91.44 | +$22.13 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 28.7¢ | $36.14 | — | -$36.14 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.8¢ | $77.41 | — | -$77.41 | 53% 897-807 (1704) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 98.9¢ | $74.2 | $75 | +$0.8 | 75% 532-179 (711) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 97¢ | $44.91 | $33 | -$11.91 | 65% 1333-709 (2042) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 78.9¢ | $24.73 | — | -$24.53 | 62% 1526-942 (2468) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 34.2¢ | $24.34 | $33.33 | +$17.54 | 53% 825-745 (1570) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $13.72 | $14 | +$0.28 | 98% 1426-30 (1456) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $5.72 | $11 | +$5.28 | 57% 4204-3155 (7359) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $5 | +$1.7 | 37% 413-690 (1103) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 37.8¢ | $9.35 | — | -$9.35 | 48% 718-774 (1492) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Upavg 79.8¢ | $7.83 | — | -$7.83 | 60% 927-624 (1551) |
Invested
$160.55
Value
$170
PnL
+$21.75
Record
52%
3430-3194 (6624)
Invested
$105.45
Value
$91.44
PnL
-$14.01
Record
49%
3117-3227 (6344)
Both legs:
Invested
$77.41
Value
—
PnL
-$77.41
Record
53%
897-807 (1704)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$74.2
Value
$75
PnL
+$0.8
Record
75%
532-179 (711)
Invested
$44.91
Value
$33
PnL
-$11.91
Record
65%
1333-709 (2042)
Invested
$24.73
Value
—
PnL
-$24.53
Record
62%
1526-942 (2468)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$24.34
Value
$33.33
PnL
+$17.54
Record
53%
825-745 (1570)
Invested
$13.72
Value
$14
PnL
+$0.28
Record
98%
1426-30 (1456)
Invested
$5.72
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.28
Record
57%
4204-3155 (7359)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.7
Record
37%
413-690 (1103)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.35
Value
—
PnL
-$9.35
Record
48%
718-774 (1492)
Invested
$7.83
Value
—
PnL
-$7.83
Record
60%
927-624 (1551)