Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET
Resolved Up. 14% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
7
Up 14%
2 arb excluded
$577.84
-$156.89
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Upavg 99¢ | $303.26 | $306.37 | +$3.11 | 98% 1235-27 (1262) |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 46.3¢ | $201.22 | $184.54 | -$16.68 | 52% 3288-3043 (6331) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.9¢ | $92.02 | $184.54 | +$92.53 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.3¢ | $109.21 | — | -$109.21 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 53.1¢ | $80.55 | $86.92 | +$6.37 | 53% 728-635 (1363) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 43.5¢ | $37.79 | $86.92 | +$49.13 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53.1¢ | $42.76 | — | -$42.76 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $68.18 | — | -$68.18 | 53% 766-685 (1451) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $29.07 | — | -$29.07 | 61% 1274-816 (2090) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $18.24 | — | -$7.34 | 58% 1179-851 (2030) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $2.75 | — | -$2.75 | 65% 1142-605 (1747) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $3 | — | -$3 | 48% 607-654 (1261) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 75.3¢ | $49.67 | — | -$49.67 | 49% 2975-3069 (6044) |
Invested
$303.26
Value
$306.37
PnL
+$3.11
Record
98%
1235-27 (1262)
Invested
$201.22
Value
$184.54
PnL
-$16.68
Record
52%
3288-3043 (6331)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$80.55
Value
$86.92
PnL
+$6.37
Record
53%
728-635 (1363)
Both legs:
Invested
$68.18
Value
—
PnL
-$68.18
Record
53%
766-685 (1451)
Invested
$29.07
Value
—
PnL
-$29.07
Record
61%
1274-816 (2090)
Invested
$18.24
Value
—
PnL
-$7.34
Record
58%
1179-851 (2030)
Invested
$2.75
Value
—
PnL
-$2.75
Record
65%
1142-605 (1747)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3
Value
—
PnL
-$3
Record
48%
607-654 (1261)
Invested
$49.67
Value
—
PnL
-$49.67
Record
49%
2975-3069 (6044)