Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Up (77%) · Up at 100¢ · $341 held · ended Nov 10

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 77%

Total Value

$341.25

Combined PnL

$7.06

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 100¢

+53% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up10 traders

Total Value$340.61

Total Shares379

Combined PnL+$13.52

Down3 traders

Total Value$0.61

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$6.46

Up — 77%Down — 23%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 73¢	$121.68	$121.55	-$0.14	53% 760-675 (1435)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 68.1¢	$50.5	$51.38	+$0.88	49% 2927-3042 (5969)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Upavg 52¢	$35.6	$39.65	+$4.05	44% 574-732 (1306)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 72.5¢	$36.04	$38.8	+$2.76	53% 739-648 (1387)
BL blue.birds<$100	Upavg 79.9¢	$27.16	$30.75	+$3.59	52% 3251-3011 (6262)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 48¢	$28.31	$29.49	+$1.18	43% 567-743 (1310)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Upavg 51.6¢	$11.13	$11.5	+$0.37	57% 4117-3083 (7200)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 98¢	$8.82	$8.96	+$0.13	98% 1174-26 (1200)
BO Bonereaper<$100	Upavg 51¢	$4.59	$4.5	-$0.09	59% 308-215 (523)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 64¢	$3.25	$4.04	+$0.79	65% 1091-580 (1671)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$1.38	$0.58	-$0.81	35% 277-519 (796)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 4.8¢	$2.7	$0.03	-$2.67	37% 296-504 (800)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 27.1¢	$2.99	$0.01	-$2.98	61% 1214-784 (1998)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$121.68

Value

$121.55

PnL

-$0.14

Record

53%

760-675 (1435)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$50.5

Value

$51.38

PnL

+$0.88

Record

49%

2927-3042 (5969)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Invested

$35.6

Value

$39.65

PnL

+$4.05

Record

44%

574-732 (1306)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$36.04

Value

$38.8

PnL

+$2.76

Record

53%

739-648 (1387)

blue.birds<$100

Invested

$27.16

Value

$30.75

PnL

+$3.59

Record

52%

3251-3011 (6262)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$28.31

Value

$29.49

PnL

+$1.18

Record

43%

567-743 (1310)

Hcrystallash<$100

Invested

$11.13

Value

$11.5

PnL

+$0.37

Record

57%

4117-3083 (7200)

hoodquant<$100

Invested

$8.82

Value

$8.96

PnL

+$0.13

Record

98%

1174-26 (1200)

Bonereaper<$100

Invested

$4.59

Value

$4.5

PnL

-$0.09

Record

59%

308-215 (523)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$3.25

Value

$4.04

PnL

+$0.79

Record

65%

1091-580 (1671)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.38

Value

$0.58

PnL

-$0.81

Record

35%

277-519 (796)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.7

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$2.67

Record

37%

296-504 (800)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.99

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$2.98

Record

61%

1214-784 (1998)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.