Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Down 47%
1 arb excluded
$431.68
-$324.18
Smart Money Signal
9 of 19 top traders (47%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AS asdcaxz | Upavg 88.4¢ | $107.86 | $114.92 | +$7.06 | 49% 2797-2918 (5715) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025ARB<$100 | Upavg 76.4¢ | $82.05 | $61.61 | -$20.44 | 44% 448-560 (1008) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.4¢ | $47.07 | $61.61 | +$14.54 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 35.3¢ | $34.98 | — | -$34.98 | |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $57.14 | $57.72 | +$0.58 | 57% 4034-3048 (7082) |
BL blue.birds<$100 | Upavg 77.9¢ | $61.28 | $53.99 | +$7.11 | 52% 3111-2890 (6001) |
PB PBot-5CTR | Downavg 44.3¢ | $107.52 | — | -$107.52 | 47% 264-296 (560) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 90.9¢ | $80.99 | $40.36 | -$1.51 | 61% 1022-653 (1675) |
 wowitsamazing<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $19.8 | $39.71 | +$19.91 | 46% 48-57 (105) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 68.9¢ | $28.88 | $25.38 | -$2.85 | 54% 582-503 (1085) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 48.3¢ | $55.06 | — | -$55.06 | 48% 767-833 (1600) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 85.5¢ | $17.09 | $19.99 | +$2.9 | 49% 481-506 (987) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $13.53 | $12 | -$1.53 | 65% 923-492 (1415) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99¢ | $5.94 | $6 | +$0.06 | 98% 973-21 (994) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 12.1¢ | $4.05 | — | -$4.05 | 36% 229-400 (629) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 10.4¢ | $7.65 | — | -$7.65 | 53% 619-554 (1173) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 33.3¢ | $118.43 | — | -$118.43 | 48% 463-495 (958) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 28.4¢ | $45.26 | — | -$45.26 | 53% 610-548 (1158) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 19.7¢ | $7.67 | — | -$7.67 | 38% 229-377 (606) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.6¢ | $12.45 | — | -$12.45 | 44% 467-600 (1067) |
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | — 5-0 (5) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $7.65 | — | +$2.2 | 57% 888-659 (1547) |
Invested
$107.86
Value
$114.92
PnL
+$7.06
Record
49%
2797-2918 (5715)
Invested
$82.05
Value
$61.61
PnL
-$20.44
Record
44%
448-560 (1008)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.14
Value
$57.72
PnL
+$0.58
Record
57%
4034-3048 (7082)
Invested
$61.28
Value
$53.99
PnL
+$7.11
Record
52%
3111-2890 (6001)
Invested
$107.52
Value
—
PnL
-$107.52
Record
47%
264-296 (560)
Invested
$80.99
Value
$40.36
PnL
-$1.51
Record
61%
1022-653 (1675)
wowitsamazing<$100Invested
$19.8
Value
$39.71
PnL
+$19.91
Record
46%
48-57 (105)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$28.88
Value
$25.38
PnL
-$2.85
Record
54%
582-503 (1085)
Invested
$55.06
Value
—
PnL
-$55.06
Record
48%
767-833 (1600)
ohioism<$100Invested
$17.09
Value
$19.99
PnL
+$2.9
Record
49%
481-506 (987)
Invested
$13.53
Value
$12
PnL
-$1.53
Record
65%
923-492 (1415)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
98%
973-21 (994)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$4.05
Value
—
PnL
-$4.05
Record
36%
229-400 (629)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$7.65
Value
—
PnL
-$7.65
Record
53%
619-554 (1173)
Invested
$118.43
Value
—
PnL
-$118.43
Record
48%
463-495 (958)
Invested
$45.26
Value
—
PnL
-$45.26
Record
53%
610-548 (1158)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$7.67
Value
—
PnL
-$7.67
Record
38%
229-377 (606)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$12.45
Value
—
PnL
-$12.45
Record
44%
467-600 (1067)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
5-0 (5)
Invested
$7.65
Value
—
PnL
+$2.2
Record
57%
888-659 (1547)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
asdcaxz
Up — $114.92
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Hcrystallash
Up — $57.72
blue.birds
Up — $53.99
PBot-5
CTRDown — $0
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $40.36
wowitsamazing
Up — $39.71
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $25.38
38791873984189
CTRDown — $0
ohioism
Up — $19.99