Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET
Resolved Up. 53% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
15
Down 53%
$168.19
-$86.56
Smart Money Signal
8 of 15 top traders (53%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 57.7¢ | $74.76 | $89.85 | +$15.09 | 53% 578-516 (1094) |
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100 | Downavg 37.1¢ | $18.03 | — | -$15.28 | 52% 3079-2848 (5927) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 75¢ | $17.22 | $20 | +$2.78 | 53% 584-522 (1106) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $13.68 | $18 | +$4.32 | 48% 444-473 (917) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 72¢ | $10.95 | $15.21 | +$4.26 | 44% 444-557 (1001) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 87¢ | $10.57 | $12.15 | +$1.58 | 61% 962-618 (1580) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 33.9¢ | $26.33 | — | -$26.33 | 49% 2767-2874 (5641) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 98.6¢ | $12.25 | $7.98 | -$4.27 | 65% 869-465 (1334) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 66¢ | $3.3 | $5 | +$1.7 | 54% 549-476 (1025) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $2.22 | — | -$2.22 | 48% 733-802 (1535) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $2.23 | — | -$2.23 | 37% 216-370 (586) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Downavg 23.7¢ | $1.32 | — | -$1.32 | 57% 822-611 (1433) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 35.9¢ | $62.25 | — | -$62.25 | 49% 439-452 (891) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Downavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 38% 352-563 (915) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $2.35 | — | -$2.35 | 37% 212-358 (570) |
Invested
$74.76
Value
$89.85
PnL
+$15.09
Record
53%
578-516 (1094)
Invested
$18.03
Value
—
PnL
-$15.28
Record
52%
3079-2848 (5927)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$17.22
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.78
Record
53%
584-522 (1106)
ohioism<$100Invested
$13.68
Value
$18
PnL
+$4.32
Record
48%
444-473 (917)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$10.95
Value
$15.21
PnL
+$4.26
Record
44%
444-557 (1001)
Invested
$10.57
Value
$12.15
PnL
+$1.58
Record
61%
962-618 (1580)
Invested
$26.33
Value
—
PnL
-$26.33
Record
49%
2767-2874 (5641)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$7.98
PnL
-$4.27
Record
65%
869-465 (1334)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$1.7
Record
54%
549-476 (1025)
Invested
$2.22
Value
—
PnL
-$2.22
Record
48%
733-802 (1535)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.23
Value
—
PnL
-$2.23
Record
37%
216-370 (586)
Invested
$1.32
Value
—
PnL
-$1.32
Record
57%
822-611 (1433)
Invested
$62.25
Value
—
PnL
-$62.25
Record
49%
439-452 (891)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
38%
352-563 (915)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
—
PnL
-$2.35
Record
37%
212-358 (570)