Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 46%
2 arb excluded
$618.79
-$43.94
Smart Money Signal
7 of 14 top traders (50%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $5.01 | — | -$5.01 | 41% 249-352 (601) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Downavg 81.2¢ | $134.08 | $154.7 | +$20.62 | 49% 2767-2874 (5641) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 81.2¢ | $125.69 | $154.7 | +$29.02 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 9.6¢ | $8.4 | — | -$8.4 | |
BL blue.birdsARB<$100 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $108.43 | $103.09 | -$5.34 | 52% 3079-2848 (5927) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15¢ | $18.42 | — | -$18.42 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 87.3¢ | $90.01 | $103.09 | +$13.08 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $212.84 | $216 | +$3.16 | 98% 923-20 (943) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 85.7¢ | $122.23 | $89.18 | -$33.04 | 53% 578-516 (1094) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 1.8¢ | $2.1 | — | -$2.1 | 44% 444-557 (1001) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.1¢ | $2.31 | — | -$2.31 | 37% 216-370 (586) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 87.3¢ | $22.88 | $21.08 | -$1.8 | 65% 869-465 (1334) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 85.2¢ | $20.02 | $23.49 | +$3.47 | 53% 584-522 (1106) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 17¢ | $4.25 | — | -$4.25 | 48% 444-473 (917) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 86.2¢ | $15.66 | $7.08 | +$0.06 | 61% 962-618 (1580) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $2.17 | $4.17 | +$2 | 41% 425-614 (1039) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 2.6¢ | $4.29 | — | -$4.29 | 37% 212-358 (570) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 7¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 49% 439-452 (891) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.02 | — | -$0.02 | 38% 352-563 (915) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $3.3 | — | +$1.6 | 54% 549-476 (1025) |
Invested
$5.01
Value
—
PnL
-$5.01
Record
41%
249-352 (601)
Invested
$134.08
Value
$154.7
PnL
+$20.62
Record
49%
2767-2874 (5641)
Both legs:
Invested
$108.43
Value
$103.09
PnL
-$5.34
Record
52%
3079-2848 (5927)
Both legs:
Invested
$212.84
Value
$216
PnL
+$3.16
Record
98%
923-20 (943)
Invested
$122.23
Value
$89.18
PnL
-$33.04
Record
53%
578-516 (1094)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.1
Value
—
PnL
-$2.1
Record
44%
444-557 (1001)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$2.31
Value
—
PnL
-$2.31
Record
37%
216-370 (586)
Invested
$22.88
Value
$21.08
PnL
-$1.8
Record
65%
869-465 (1334)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$20.02
Value
$23.49
PnL
+$3.47
Record
53%
584-522 (1106)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$4.25
Value
—
PnL
-$4.25
Record
48%
444-473 (917)
Invested
$15.66
Value
$7.08
PnL
+$0.06
Record
61%
962-618 (1580)
Invested
$2.17
Value
$4.17
PnL
+$2
Record
41%
425-614 (1039)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$4.29
Value
—
PnL
-$4.29
Record
37%
212-358 (570)
Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
49%
439-452 (891)
Invested
$0.02
Value
—
PnL
-$0.02
Record
38%
352-563 (915)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$3.3
Value
—
PnL
+$1.6
Record
54%
549-476 (1025)