Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET
Resolved Up. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
16
Down 56%
2 arb excluded
$408.54
-$698.09
Smart Money Signal
9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birds | Upavg 80.2¢ | $133.68 | $139.85 | +$6.97 | 52% 3064-2828 (5892) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 76.2¢ | $121.29 | $120.6 | -$0.69 | 49% 2754-2852 (5606) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 76.2¢ | $91.87 | $120.6 | +$28.73 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 17¢ | $29.42 | — | -$29.42 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR | Downavg 42.5¢ | $279.38 | — | -$279.38 | 41% 424-609 (1033) |
BO bosonaCTR | Downavg 45¢ | $126.86 | — | -$126.86 | 50% 3484-3522 (7006) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 59.9¢ | $53.07 | $45.77 | -$7.3 | 54% 538-458 (996) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 59.9¢ | $27.42 | $45.77 | +$18.35 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 46.6¢ | $25.65 | — | -$25.65 | |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $67.4 | $47.8 | -$19.6 | 38% 246-396 (642) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 81.7¢ | $20.22 | $24 | +$3.82 | 61% 933-598 (1531) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Downavg 44.8¢ | $19.99 | — | -$19.99 | 44% 403-515 (918) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $19.25 | $17.45 | -$1.8 | 65% 845-450 (1295) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Downavg 49¢ | $9.8 | — | -$9.8 | 48% 428-460 (888) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $6.83 | — | -$6.83 | 48% 721-776 (1497) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 97¢ | $6.86 | $7.07 | +$0.21 | 56% 592-457 (1049) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 76¢ | $6.6 | $5 | -$1.6 | 39% 249-385 (634) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Downavg 46¢ | $4.6 | — | -$4.6 | 58% 794-586 (1380) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 21.7¢ | $4.56 | — | -$4.56 | 53% 570-504 (1074) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 30.5¢ | $50.51 | — | -$50.51 | 53% 563-499 (1062) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $0.69 | $1 | +$0.31 | 44% 429-541 (970) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Downavg 47.1¢ | $183.87 | — | -$183.87 | 49% 421-431 (852) |
Invested
$133.68
Value
$139.85
PnL
+$6.97
Record
52%
3064-2828 (5892)
Invested
$121.29
Value
$120.6
PnL
-$0.69
Record
49%
2754-2852 (5606)
Both legs:
Invested
$279.38
Value
—
PnL
-$279.38
Record
41%
424-609 (1033)
Invested
$126.86
Value
—
PnL
-$126.86
Record
50%
3484-3522 (7006)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$53.07
Value
$45.77
PnL
-$7.3
Record
54%
538-458 (996)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.4
Value
$47.8
PnL
-$19.6
Record
38%
246-396 (642)
Invested
$20.22
Value
$24
PnL
+$3.82
Record
61%
933-598 (1531)
Invested
$19.99
Value
—
PnL
-$19.99
Record
44%
403-515 (918)
Invested
$19.25
Value
$17.45
PnL
-$1.8
Record
65%
845-450 (1295)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$9.8
Value
—
PnL
-$9.8
Record
48%
428-460 (888)
Invested
$6.83
Value
—
PnL
-$6.83
Record
48%
721-776 (1497)
Invested
$6.86
Value
$7.07
PnL
+$0.21
Record
56%
592-457 (1049)
Invested
$6.6
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.6
Record
39%
249-385 (634)
Invested
$4.6
Value
—
PnL
-$4.6
Record
58%
794-586 (1380)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$4.56
Value
—
PnL
-$4.56
Record
53%
570-504 (1074)
Invested
$50.51
Value
—
PnL
-$50.51
Record
53%
563-499 (1062)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$0.69
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.31
Record
44%
429-541 (970)
Invested
$183.87
Value
—
PnL
-$183.87
Record
49%
421-431 (852)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
blue.birds
Up — $139.85
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown — $0
bosona
CTRDown — $0
Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage — excluded
mo-money
Up — $47.8
drfc4eybh7i8
Up — $24
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRDown — $0
asdaefef
Up — $17.45
ohioism
CTRDown — $0