Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 57%
1 arb excluded
$348.77
-$328.62
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL blue.birdsCTR | Upavg 55.1¢ | $162.78 | — | -$158.43 | 52% 3064-2828 (5892) |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 54.4¢ | $89.02 | $131.52 | +$42.5 | 53% 563-499 (1062) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 54.4¢ | $71.58 | $131.52 | +$59.94 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24¢ | $17.44 | — | -$17.44 | |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 56¢ | $136.85 | — | -$136.85 | 49% 2754-2852 (5606) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 47.5¢ | $98.91 | — | -$91.26 | 49% 421-431 (852) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 98¢ | $59.78 | $61 | +$1.22 | 98% 902-18 (920) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 43.5¢ | $21.4 | $40.09 | +$18.69 | 53% 570-504 (1074) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 37.1¢ | $12.25 | $25.05 | +$16.72 | 61% 933-598 (1531) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 41¢ | $17.45 | $42.5 | +$25.06 | 44% 429-541 (970) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 77.3¢ | $13.43 | $11.36 | -$2.07 | 65% 845-450 (1295) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $8.09 | — | -$8.09 | 48% 721-776 (1497) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $8.4 | $20 | +$11.6 | 48% 428-460 (888) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $6.72 | $12 | +$5.28 | 57% 4001-3031 (7032) |
PB PBot-5<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $2.73 | $5.25 | +$2.52 | 47% 242-272 (514) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 46¢ | $3.06 | — | -$3.06 | 54% 538-458 (996) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 24.9¢ | $9.95 | — | -$9.95 | 44% 403-515 (918) |
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b<$100 | Down | — | — | +$0 | — 5-0 (5) |
Invested
$162.78
Value
—
PnL
-$158.43
Record
52%
3064-2828 (5892)
Invested
$89.02
Value
$131.52
PnL
+$42.5
Record
53%
563-499 (1062)
Both legs:
Invested
$136.85
Value
—
PnL
-$136.85
Record
49%
2754-2852 (5606)
Invested
$98.91
Value
—
PnL
-$91.26
Record
49%
421-431 (852)
Invested
$59.78
Value
$61
PnL
+$1.22
Record
98%
902-18 (920)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$21.4
Value
$40.09
PnL
+$18.69
Record
53%
570-504 (1074)
Invested
$12.25
Value
$25.05
PnL
+$16.72
Record
61%
933-598 (1531)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$17.45
Value
$42.5
PnL
+$25.06
Record
44%
429-541 (970)
Invested
$13.43
Value
$11.36
PnL
-$2.07
Record
65%
845-450 (1295)
Invested
$8.09
Value
—
PnL
-$8.09
Record
48%
721-776 (1497)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$11.6
Record
48%
428-460 (888)
Invested
$6.72
Value
$12
PnL
+$5.28
Record
57%
4001-3031 (7032)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$5.25
PnL
+$2.52
Record
47%
242-272 (514)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$3.06
Value
—
PnL
-$3.06
Record
54%
538-458 (996)
Invested
$9.95
Value
—
PnL
-$9.95
Record
44%
403-515 (918)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
—
5-0 (5)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
blue.birds
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
uninformedfloww
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $61
MayorMamdani
Down — $40.09
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $25.05
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $42.5
asdaefef
Down — $11.36
38791873984189
CTRUp — $0