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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET

Resolved Up. 69% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

13

Down 69%

Total Value

$101.17

Combined PnL

-$70.58

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders

Total Value$101.17

Total Shares101

Combined PnL+$8.31

Down9 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares380

Combined PnL-$78.88

Up — 31%Down — 69%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$44.59	$45.04	+$0.45	93% 24495-1821 (26316)
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100	Upavg 79.8¢	$28.85	$36.13	+$7.28	55% 18563-15146 (33709)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 31.7¢	$25.73	—	-$25.73	—
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Downavg 48¢	$15.46	—	-$15.46	—
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 57¢	$16.53	$15	-$1.53	67% 100018-48408 (148426)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 22.8¢	$11.4	—	-$11.4	51% 8591-8091 (16682)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Upavg 58¢	$2.9	$5	+$2.1	56% 58770-45399 (104169)
AA aaa221CTR<$100	Downavg 31¢	$12.58	—	-$12.58	64% 25189-13932 (39121)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Downavg 19¢	$2.69	—	-$2.69	—
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$1.38	—	-$1.38	59% 62735-43849 (106584)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 7.8¢	$2.6	—	-$2.6	55% 46197-38568 (84765)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 6¢	$1.2	—	-$1.2	65% 126652-67690 (194342)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Downavg 8.2¢	$5.85	—	-$5.85	—

Invested

$44.59

Value

$45.04

PnL

+$0.45

Record

93%

24495-1821 (26316)

Kathod-Shi-14<$100

Invested

$28.85

Value

$36.13

PnL

+$7.28

Record

55%

18563-15146 (33709)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Invested

$25.73

Value

—

PnL

-$25.73

Record

—

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$15.46

Value

—

PnL

-$15.46

Record

—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$16.53

Value

$15

PnL

-$1.53

Record

67%

100018-48408 (148426)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$11.4

Value

—

PnL

-$11.4

Record

51%

8591-8091 (16682)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Invested

$2.9

Value

$5

PnL

+$2.1

Record

56%

58770-45399 (104169)

Invested

$12.58

Value

—

PnL

-$12.58

Record

64%

25189-13932 (39121)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$2.69

Value

—

PnL

-$2.69

Record

—

Invested

$1.38

Value

—

PnL

-$1.38

Record

59%

62735-43849 (106584)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$2.6

Value

—

PnL

-$2.6

Record

55%

46197-38568 (84765)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Invested

$1.2

Value

—

PnL

-$1.2

Record

65%

126652-67690 (194342)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$5.85

Value

—

PnL

-$5.85

Record

—

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x0f2078ed...d5a56f

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793596800

Traders in this Market

hoodquant

Up — $45.04

Kathod-Shi-14

Up — $36.13

blue.birds

Down — $0

38791873984189

Down — $0

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Up — $15

ply-pm2

Down — $0

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530

Up — $5

aaa221

Down — $0

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507

Down — $0

0x50f7

Down — $0

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