Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (50%). 0 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET
8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 50¢ · $395 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Down
10
Down 80%
$394.88
-$31.83
84.9¢ → 50¢
-41% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Up 50%)8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 96.8¢ | $121 | $123.13 | +$2.13 | 93% 24319-1811 (26130) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 94.3¢ | $147.27 | $121.57 | -$25.7 | 51% 8411-7930 (16341) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 67.7¢ | $56.5 | $55.24 | -$1.26 | 55% 18379-14972 (33351) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 75.1¢ | $47.85 | $48.58 | +$0.73 | 64% 24882-13745 (38627) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 78.2¢ | $17.72 | $15.51 | -$2.21 | 54% 11314-9625 (20939) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 75¢ | $11.07 | $10.55 | -$0.52 | 65% 126454-67593 (194047) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 58.1¢ | $11.61 | $9.9 | -$1.71 | 62% 44284-27268 (71552) |
WZ wzbbb<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $8.75 | $8.07 | -$0.67 | 56% 8353-6485 (14838) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $1.42 | +$0.02 | 64% 58907-33468 (92375) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Upavg 5.9¢ | $3.53 | $0.9 | -$2.63 | 46% 38677-45770 (84447) |
Invested
$121
Value
$123.13
PnL
+$2.13
Record
93%
24319-1811 (26130)
Invested
$147.27
Value
$121.57
PnL
-$25.7
Record
51%
8411-7930 (16341)
Invested
$56.5
Value
$55.24
PnL
-$1.26
Record
55%
18379-14972 (33351)
Invested
$47.85
Value
$48.58
PnL
+$0.73
Record
64%
24882-13745 (38627)
Invested
$17.72
Value
$15.51
PnL
-$2.21
Record
54%
11314-9625 (20939)
Invested
$11.07
Value
$10.55
PnL
-$0.52
Record
65%
126454-67593 (194047)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$11.61
Value
$9.9
PnL
-$1.71
Record
62%
44284-27268 (71552)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$8.07
PnL
-$0.67
Record
56%
8353-6485 (14838)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$1.4
Value
$1.42
PnL
+$0.02
Record
64%
58907-33468 (92375)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$3.53
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$2.63
Record
46%
38677-45770 (84447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.