Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 1, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET
Resolved Up. 23% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
13
Down 23%
$392.22
-$1.34
Smart Money Signal
3 of 13 top traders (23%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 59.9¢ | $155.89 | $113.61 | -$42.28 | 51% 8396-7911 (16307) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 88¢ | $59.86 | $58 | -$1.86 | 49% 78491-82056 (160547) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $39.47 | $51.26 | +$11.79 | 55% 45991-38342 (84333) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Upavg 73.5¢ | $38 | $46.63 | +$8.63 | 55% 18359-14947 (33306) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Upavg 67.8¢ | $13.8 | $20.36 | +$6.56 | 61% 96025-60531 (156556) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 88.5¢ | $19.26 | $17.86 | -$1.4 | 64% 24852-13722 (38574) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $16.68 | $17.28 | +$0.61 | 46% 38661-45750 (84411) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 47.2¢ | $6.68 | $14.16 | +$7.48 | 66% 127086-65386 (192472) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Upavg 49.7¢ | $6.05 | $12.18 | +$6.13 | 52% 91299-85747 (177046) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98¢ | $10.41 | $10.62 | +$0.21 | 93% 24291-1810 (26101) |
DE devonpoll<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $19.4 | $10.21 | -$6.02 | 51% 20368-19455 (39823) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 35.5¢ | $3.58 | $0.05 | -$3.53 | 64% 58895-33457 (92352) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 38.3¢ | $7.66 | $20 | +$12.34 | 62% 44272-27256 (71528) |
Invested
$155.89
Value
$113.61
PnL
-$42.28
Record
51%
8396-7911 (16307)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$59.86
Value
$58
PnL
-$1.86
Record
49%
78491-82056 (160547)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$39.47
Value
$51.26
PnL
+$11.79
Record
55%
45991-38342 (84333)
Invested
$38
Value
$46.63
PnL
+$8.63
Record
55%
18359-14947 (33306)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$20.36
PnL
+$6.56
Record
61%
96025-60531 (156556)
Invested
$19.26
Value
$17.86
PnL
-$1.4
Record
64%
24852-13722 (38574)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$16.68
Value
$17.28
PnL
+$0.61
Record
46%
38661-45750 (84411)
Invested
$6.68
Value
$14.16
PnL
+$7.48
Record
66%
127086-65386 (192472)
Invested
$6.05
Value
$12.18
PnL
+$6.13
Record
52%
91299-85747 (177046)
Invested
$10.41
Value
$10.62
PnL
+$0.21
Record
93%
24291-1810 (26101)
Invested
$19.4
Value
$10.21
PnL
-$6.02
Record
51%
20368-19455 (39823)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$3.58
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$3.53
Record
64%
58895-33457 (92352)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$7.66
Value
$20
PnL
+$12.34
Record
62%
44272-27256 (71528)
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