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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Down — but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET

Resolved Up. 47% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

15

Down 50%

Total Value

$125.23

Combined PnL

-$147.13

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 15 top traders (47%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down7 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares683

Combined PnL-$169.31

Up8 traders

Total Value$125.23

Total Shares125

Combined PnL+$22.18

Down — 47%Up — 53%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Downavg 2.4¢	$7.71	—	-$7.71	49% 78295-81799 (160094)
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100	Downavg 26.2¢	$45.84	—	-$45.84	57% 71395-54409 (125804)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 59.9¢	$82.31	—	-$82.31	52% 8114-7618 (15732)
AA aaa221<$100	Upavg 65.6¢	$25.07	$38.23	+$13.16	64% 24274-13401 (37675)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Upavg 55.5¢	$18.25	$31	+$12.75	58% 38241-27378 (65619)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Upavg 99¢	$22.8	$19	-$3.8	61% 95475-60241 (155716)
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100	Downavg 39.5¢	$12.51	—	-$12.51	54% 11149-9508 (20657)
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100	Downavg 54.4¢	$14.97	—	-$14.97	56% 8178-6319 (14497)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 80.7¢	$12.1	$15	+$2.9	65% 125977-67395 (193372)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Upavg 99¢	$10.97	$8	-$2.97	52% 90943-85477 (176420)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$5.72	—	-$5.72	58% 60853-44436 (105289)
HO hoodquant<$100	Upavg 99¢	$5.94	$6	+$0.06	93% 24047-1801 (25848)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 99¢	$7.92	$8	+$0.08	66% 126616-65192 (191808)
pspspsps5CTR<$100	Downavg 5¢	$0.25	—	-$0.25	46% 38451-45413 (83864)
DE devonpoll<$100	Up	—	—	+$0	51% 20282-19401 (39683)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$7.71

Value

—

PnL

-$7.71

Record

49%

78295-81799 (160094)

uninformedflowwCTR<$100

Invested

$45.84

Value

—

PnL

-$45.84

Record

57%

71395-54409 (125804)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Invested

$82.31

Value

—

PnL

-$82.31

Record

52%

8114-7618 (15732)

Invested

$25.07

Value

$38.23

PnL

+$13.16

Record

64%

24274-13401 (37675)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Invested

$18.25

Value

$31

PnL

+$12.75

Record

58%

38241-27378 (65619)

asidjasiodja<$100

Invested

$22.8

Value

$19

PnL

-$3.8

Record

61%

95475-60241 (155716)

thesidehustleCTR<$100

Invested

$12.51

Value

—

PnL

-$12.51

Record

54%

11149-9508 (20657)

Invested

$14.97

Value

—

PnL

-$14.97

Record

56%

8178-6319 (14497)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$12.1

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.9

Record

65%

125977-67395 (193372)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Invested

$10.97

Value

$8

PnL

-$2.97

Record

52%

90943-85477 (176420)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Invested

$5.72

Value

—

PnL

-$5.72

Record

58%

60853-44436 (105289)

Invested

$5.94

Value

$6

PnL

+$0.06

Record

93%

24047-1801 (25848)

Invested

$7.92

Value

$8

PnL

+$0.08

Record

66%

126616-65192 (191808)

pspspsps5CTR<$100

Invested

$0.25

Value

—

PnL

-$0.25

Record

46%

38451-45413 (83864)

Invested

—

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

20282-19401 (39683)

Smart Money Signal

Down

7 of 15 top traders (47%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x4b525006...f228c6

Slug

eth-updown-5m-1793487300

Traders in this Market

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $0

uninformedfloww

Down — $0

ply-pm2

Down — $0

aaa221

Up — $38.23

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518

Up — $31

asidjasiodja

Up — $19

thesidehustle

Down — $0

wzbbb

Down — $0

drfc4eybh7i8

Up — $15

dvasdkasodk

Up — $8

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