Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
17
Down 75%
1 arb excluded
$731.75
$110.94
Smart Money Signal
12 of 17 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98¢ | $261.66 | $267 | +$5.34 | 93% 24047-1801 (25848) |
PL ply-pm2 | Downavg 55.7¢ | $113.62 | $170.65 | +$57.02 | 52% 8114-7618 (15732) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 57.5¢ | $58.91 | $45 | -$13.91 | 58% 38241-27378 (65619) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 57.5¢ | $35.06 | — | -$35.06 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 53¢ | $23.85 | $45 | +$21.15 | |
UN uninformedfloww<$100 | Downavg 73.9¢ | $44.35 | $60 | +$15.65 | 57% 71395-54409 (125804) |
LI Little-big<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $26.6 | $53.2 | +$26.6 | 35% 18993-35997 (54990) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 4¢ | $7.74 | — | -$7.74 | 49% 78295-81799 (160094) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 71.9¢ | $22.5 | $31.29 | +$8.79 | 61% 95475-60241 (155716) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $18.42 | $20 | +$1.58 | 64% 24274-13401 (37675) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 87¢ | $17.4 | $20 | +$2.6 | 56% 58419-45082 (103501) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 3.9¢ | $5.17 | — | -$5.17 | 46% 38451-45413 (83864) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.5¢ | $10.39 | — | -$10.39 | 56% 8178-6319 (14497) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14<$100 | Downavg 75.5¢ | $10.4 | $10.06 | -$0.34 | 55% 18138-14723 (32861) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $10.4 | $20 | +$9.6 | 58% 60853-44436 (105289) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $10.84 | $14.29 | +$3.45 | 52% 90943-85477 (176420) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 74¢ | $10.06 | $13.59 | +$3.53 | 66% 126616-65192 (191808) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 59.5¢ | $5.47 | $6.67 | +$1.2 | 54% 11149-9508 (20657) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.9¢ | $0.79 | — | -$0.79 | 59% 62529-43642 (106171) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20282-19401 (39683) |
Invested
$261.66
Value
$267
PnL
+$5.34
Record
93%
24047-1801 (25848)
Invested
$113.62
Value
$170.65
PnL
+$57.02
Record
52%
8114-7618 (15732)
Invested
$58.91
Value
$45
PnL
-$13.91
Record
58%
38241-27378 (65619)
Both legs:
Invested
$44.35
Value
$60
PnL
+$15.65
Record
57%
71395-54409 (125804)
Invested
$26.6
Value
$53.2
PnL
+$26.6
Record
35%
18993-35997 (54990)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$7.74
Value
—
PnL
-$7.74
Record
49%
78295-81799 (160094)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$31.29
PnL
+$8.79
Record
61%
95475-60241 (155716)
Invested
$18.42
Value
$20
PnL
+$1.58
Record
64%
24274-13401 (37675)
Invested
$17.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$2.6
Record
56%
58419-45082 (103501)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$5.17
Value
—
PnL
-$5.17
Record
46%
38451-45413 (83864)
Invested
$10.39
Value
—
PnL
-$10.39
Record
56%
8178-6319 (14497)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$10.06
PnL
-$0.34
Record
55%
18138-14723 (32861)
Invested
$10.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$9.6
Record
58%
60853-44436 (105289)
Invested
$10.84
Value
$14.29
PnL
+$3.45
Record
52%
90943-85477 (176420)
Invested
$10.06
Value
$13.59
PnL
+$3.53
Record
66%
126616-65192 (191808)
Invested
$5.47
Value
$6.67
PnL
+$1.2
Record
54%
11149-9508 (20657)
Invested
$0.79
Value
—
PnL
-$0.79
Record
59%
62529-43642 (106171)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20282-19401 (39683)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
hoodquant
Down — $267
ply-pm2
Down — $170.65
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $60
Little-big
Down — $53.2
OhioRiskManagement
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $31.29
aaa221
Down — $20
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $20
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0