Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
Resolved Down. 79% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
14
Down 79%
2 arb excluded
$459.9
-$31.54
Smart Money Signal
11 of 14 top traders (79%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 25.5¢ | $133.39 | $117.5 | -$15.89 | 52% 8084-7595 (15679) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25.5¢ | $98.83 | — | -$98.83 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.4¢ | $34.56 | $117.5 | +$82.94 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 89.3¢ | $166.27 | $101.06 | -$65.21 | 57% 71362-54385 (125747) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 89.3¢ | $90.2 | $101.06 | +$10.86 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.5¢ | $76.07 | — | -$76.07 | |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $35.82 | $36 | +$0.18 | 49% 78260-81715 (159975) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 89.2¢ | $34.41 | $31.91 | -$2.5 | 46% 38429-45392 (83821) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 96.1¢ | $27.6 | $28.72 | +$1.12 | 93% 24031-1800 (25831) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 71¢ | $26.09 | $30 | +$3.91 | 54% 11125-9485 (20610) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 41.2¢ | $16.8 | $21.37 | +$4.57 | 56% 58403-45070 (103473) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $20.2 | $20.22 | +$0.02 | 65% 125846-67348 (193194) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 89¢ | $32.88 | $20.79 | -$7.01 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 90.9¢ | $14.73 | $15.02 | +$0.29 | 66% 126575-65169 (191744) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $12.76 | $9.92 | -$2.84 | 61% 95474-60238 (155712) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $8.4 | $20 | +$11.6 | 64% 40407-23120 (63527) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 30.3¢ | $10.89 | — | -$10.89 | 58% 60841-44423 (105264) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 88¢ | $7.51 | $7.4 | -$0.11 | 52% 90910-85451 (176361) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 77¢ | $8.47 | — | -$8.47 | 58% 38225-27367 (65592) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 19.9¢ | $21.4 | — | -$21.4 | 55% 18125-14708 (32833) |
Invested
$133.39
Value
$117.5
PnL
-$15.89
Record
52%
8084-7595 (15679)
Both legs:
Invested
$166.27
Value
$101.06
PnL
-$65.21
Record
57%
71362-54385 (125747)
Both legs:
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$35.82
Value
$36
PnL
+$0.18
Record
49%
78260-81715 (159975)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$34.41
Value
$31.91
PnL
-$2.5
Record
46%
38429-45392 (83821)
Invested
$27.6
Value
$28.72
PnL
+$1.12
Record
93%
24031-1800 (25831)
Invested
$26.09
Value
$30
PnL
+$3.91
Record
54%
11125-9485 (20610)
Invested
$16.8
Value
$21.37
PnL
+$4.57
Record
56%
58403-45070 (103473)
Invested
$20.2
Value
$20.22
PnL
+$0.02
Record
65%
125846-67348 (193194)
Invested
$32.88
Value
$20.79
PnL
-$7.01
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
Invested
$14.73
Value
$15.02
PnL
+$0.29
Record
66%
126575-65169 (191744)
Invested
$12.76
Value
$9.92
PnL
-$2.84
Record
61%
95474-60238 (155712)
ohioism<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
$20
PnL
+$11.6
Record
64%
40407-23120 (63527)
Invested
$10.89
Value
—
PnL
-$10.89
Record
58%
60841-44423 (105264)
Invested
$7.51
Value
$7.4
PnL
-$0.11
Record
52%
90910-85451 (176361)
Invested
$8.47
Value
—
PnL
-$8.47
Record
58%
38225-27367 (65592)
Invested
$21.4
Value
—
PnL
-$21.4
Record
55%
18125-14708 (32833)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $36
pspspsps5
Down — $31.91
hoodquant
Down — $28.72
thesidehustle
Down — $30
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $21.37
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $20.22
aaa221
Down — $20.79
asdaefef
Down — $15.02