Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 67%
1 arb excluded
$562.23
-$26.43
Smart Money Signal
9 of 16 top traders (56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $264.84 | $347.45 | +$82.61 | 52% 8114-7618 (15732) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $173.79 | $347.45 | +$173.66 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 25¢ | $91.05 | — | -$91.05 | |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 78.5¢ | $67.82 | $86.38 | +$18.56 | 64% 24274-13401 (37675) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 60.1¢ | $24.36 | $40.51 | +$16.15 | 56% 58419-45082 (103501) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 85.4¢ | $34.88 | $32.18 | -$2.7 | 66% 126616-65192 (191808) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $49.56 | — | -$49.56 | 58% 60853-44436 (105289) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 56.4¢ | $19.69 | $22.4 | +$2.71 | 54% 11149-9508 (20657) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 56.7¢ | $15.5 | $17.25 | +$1.75 | 52% 90943-85477 (176420) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 21.3¢ | $13.7 | — | -$13.7 | 55% 18138-14723 (32861) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 89.4¢ | $14.36 | $16.07 | +$1.71 | 61% 95475-60241 (155716) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 4.6¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 46% 38451-45413 (83864) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 58% 38241-27378 (65619) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | — | — | +$0 | 49% 78295-81799 (160094) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | — | — | +$0 | 93% 24047-1801 (25848) |
 BoneOhioCTR<$100 | Upavg 58¢ | $0.27 | — | -$0.16 | 74% 102879-36496 (139375) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | — | — | +$0 | 65% 125977-67395 (193372) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 46.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 71395-54409 (125804) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Upavg 13¢ | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20282-19401 (39683) |
Invested
$264.84
Value
$347.45
PnL
+$82.61
Record
52%
8114-7618 (15732)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.82
Value
$86.38
PnL
+$18.56
Record
64%
24274-13401 (37675)
Invested
$24.36
Value
$40.51
PnL
+$16.15
Record
56%
58419-45082 (103501)
Invested
$34.88
Value
$32.18
PnL
-$2.7
Record
66%
126616-65192 (191808)
Invested
$49.56
Value
—
PnL
-$49.56
Record
58%
60853-44436 (105289)
Invested
$19.69
Value
$22.4
PnL
+$2.71
Record
54%
11149-9508 (20657)
Invested
$15.5
Value
$17.25
PnL
+$1.75
Record
52%
90943-85477 (176420)
Invested
$13.7
Value
—
PnL
-$13.7
Record
55%
18138-14723 (32861)
Invested
$14.36
Value
$16.07
PnL
+$1.71
Record
61%
95475-60241 (155716)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
46%
38451-45413 (83864)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
38241-27378 (65619)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
78295-81799 (160094)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
93%
24047-1801 (25848)
BoneOhioCTR<$100Invested
$0.27
Value
—
PnL
-$0.16
Record
74%
102879-36496 (139375)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
65%
125977-67395 (193372)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
71395-54409 (125804)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20282-19401 (39683)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
aaa221
Down — $86.38
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $40.51
asdaefef
Down — $32.18
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
CTRUp — $0
thesidehustle
Down — $22.4
dvasdkasodk
Down — $17.25
Kathod-Shi-14
CTRUp — $0
asidjasiodja
Down — $16.07
pspspsps5
CTRUp — $0