Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 100¢ · $397 held · ended Oct 31

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

Total Value

$396.91

Combined PnL

-$5.66

Smart Money Entry

85¢ → 100¢

+18% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down10 traders

Total Value$391.45

Total Shares448

Combined PnL-$8.06

Up4 traders

Total Value$5.46

Total Shares39

Combined PnL+$2.4

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PL ply-pm2	Downavg 88.1¢	$118.07	$114.42	-$3.66	52% 8084-7595 (15679)
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 89¢	$70.64	$77.05	+$6.41	57% 71362-54385 (125747)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 94.8¢	$62.87	$58.03	-$4.84	64% 24226-13368 (37594)
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 89.9¢	$42.97	$46.6	+$3.63	46% 38429-45392 (83821)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 52.5¢	$34.62	$32.66	-$1.96	58% 38225-27367 (65592)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 96¢	$23.04	$21	-$2.04	61% 95474-60238 (155712)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 96¢	$19.2	$17.5	-$1.7	65% 125846-67348 (193194)
TH thesidehustle<$100	Downavg 86¢	$8.6	$9.75	+$1.15	54% 11125-9485 (20610)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 95¢	$9.5	$8.75	-$0.75	74% 102858-36493 (139351)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 87¢	$9.99	$5.68	-$4.31	66% 126575-65169 (191744)
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100	Upavg 5.6¢	$1.12	$2.48	+$1.36	52% 90910-85451 (176361)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100	Upavg 50¢	$1.45	$1.46	+$0.01	56% 58403-45070 (103473)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$0.45	$1.39	+$0.95	59% 62520-43633 (106153)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.13	+$0.08	66% 112365-59078 (171443)

ply-pm2

Down

Invested

$118.07

Value

$114.42

PnL

-$3.66

Record

52%

8084-7595 (15679)

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$70.64

Value

$77.05

PnL

+$6.41

Record

57%

71362-54385 (125747)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$62.87

Value

$58.03

PnL

-$4.84

Record

64%

24226-13368 (37594)

pspspsps5<$100

Down

Invested

$42.97

Value

$46.6

PnL

+$3.63

Record

46%

38429-45392 (83821)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$34.62

Value

$32.66

PnL

-$1.96

Record

58%

38225-27367 (65592)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$23.04

Value

$21

PnL

-$2.04

Record

61%

95474-60238 (155712)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$19.2

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$1.7

Record

65%

125846-67348 (193194)

thesidehustle<$100

Down

Invested

$8.6

Value

$9.75

PnL

+$1.15

Record

54%

11125-9485 (20610)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$9.5

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

74%

102858-36493 (139351)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$9.99

Value

$5.68

PnL

-$4.31

Record

66%

126575-65169 (191744)

dvasdkasodkCTR<$100

Invested

$1.12

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$1.36

Record

52%

90910-85451 (176361)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.46

PnL

+$0.01

Record

56%

58403-45070 (103473)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$0.45

Value

$1.39

PnL

+$0.95

Record

59%

62520-43633 (106153)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.13

PnL

+$0.08

Record

66%

112365-59078 (171443)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.