Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
Resolved Down. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
15
Down 64%
2 arb excluded
$1.0K
$25.92
Smart Money Signal
9 of 15 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 71.3¢ | $486.62 | $507.03 | +$20.41 | 52% 8084-7595 (15679) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 71.3¢ | $361.47 | $507.03 | +$145.57 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 24.6¢ | $125.15 | — | -$125.15 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 78.4¢ | $268.08 | $255.88 | -$12.2 | 57% 71362-54385 (125747) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 78.4¢ | $200.6 | $255.88 | +$55.28 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.9¢ | $67.48 | — | -$67.48 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $83.78 | $84.63 | +$0.85 | 93% 24031-1800 (25831) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 57.5¢ | $35.06 | $60.99 | +$25.94 | 58% 38225-27367 (65592) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 85.4¢ | $31.84 | $34.18 | +$2.34 | 61% 95474-60238 (155712) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.5¢ | $13.8 | — | -$13.8 | 35% 18983-35988 (54971) |
 UpandDownSyndrome<$100 | Downavg 55¢ | $8.14 | $10.09 | +$1.95 | 63% 52240-31232 (83472) |
TH thesidehustle<$100 | Downavg 69.5¢ | $19.51 | $22.33 | +$2.81 | 54% 11125-9485 (20610) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 40.7¢ | $9 | $22.12 | +$13.12 | 56% 58403-45070 (103473) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 52.1¢ | $12.05 | $23.11 | +$11.06 | 46% 38429-45392 (83821) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 78¢ | $14.8 | $13.33 | -$1.47 | 66% 126575-65169 (191744) |
KA Kathod-Shi-14CTR<$100 | Upavg 39.4¢ | $10.8 | — | -$10.8 | 55% 18125-14708 (32833) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 47¢ | $7.15 | — | -$7.15 | 56% 8168-6307 (14475) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 56¢ | $6.72 | $12 | +$5.28 | 49% 78260-81715 (159975) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 19.4¢ | $2.82 | — | -$2.82 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 52% 90910-85451 (176361) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20272-19399 (39671) |
Invested
$486.62
Value
$507.03
PnL
+$20.41
Record
52%
8084-7595 (15679)
Both legs:
Invested
$268.08
Value
$255.88
PnL
-$12.2
Record
57%
71362-54385 (125747)
Both legs:
Invested
$83.78
Value
$84.63
PnL
+$0.85
Record
93%
24031-1800 (25831)
Invested
$35.06
Value
$60.99
PnL
+$25.94
Record
58%
38225-27367 (65592)
Invested
$31.84
Value
$34.18
PnL
+$2.34
Record
61%
95474-60238 (155712)
Invested
$13.8
Value
—
PnL
-$13.8
Record
35%
18983-35988 (54971)
UpandDownSyndrome<$100Invested
$8.14
Value
$10.09
PnL
+$1.95
Record
63%
52240-31232 (83472)
Invested
$19.51
Value
$22.33
PnL
+$2.81
Record
54%
11125-9485 (20610)
Invested
$9
Value
$22.12
PnL
+$13.12
Record
56%
58403-45070 (103473)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$12.05
Value
$23.11
PnL
+$11.06
Record
46%
38429-45392 (83821)
Invested
$14.8
Value
$13.33
PnL
-$1.47
Record
66%
126575-65169 (191744)
Invested
$10.8
Value
—
PnL
-$10.8
Record
55%
18125-14708 (32833)
Invested
$7.15
Value
—
PnL
-$7.15
Record
56%
8168-6307 (14475)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$6.72
Value
$12
PnL
+$5.28
Record
49%
78260-81715 (159975)
Invested
$2.82
Value
—
PnL
-$2.82
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
52%
90910-85451 (176361)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20272-19399 (39671)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $84.63
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $60.99
asidjasiodja
Down — $34.18
Little-big
CTRUp — $0
UpandDownSyndrome
Down — $10.09
thesidehustle
Down — $22.33
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $22.12
pspspsps5
Down — $23.11