Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - October 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 58% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
12
Down 64%
2 arb excluded
$486.69
$58.04
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Upavg 26.7¢ | $111.91 | $183.66 | +$71.75 | 52% 8084-7595 (15679) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 29.4¢ | $53.93 | $183.66 | +$129.73 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 26.7¢ | $57.98 | — | -$57.98 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 55.5¢ | $57.98 | $47 | -$10.98 | 58% 38225-27367 (65592) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 55.5¢ | $34.95 | — | -$34.95 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49¢ | $23.03 | $47 | +$23.97 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 50.1¢ | $66.06 | $131.87 | +$65.81 | 57% 71362-54385 (125747) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $43.07 | $33 | -$10.07 | 61% 95474-60238 (155712) |
TH thesidehustleCTR<$100 | Upavg 49.9¢ | $13.44 | — | -$13.44 | 54% 11125-9485 (20610) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 57.9¢ | $17.64 | $30.46 | +$12.82 | 49% 78260-81715 (159975) |
AA aaa221CTR<$100 | Upavg 69¢ | $14.5 | — | -$14.5 | 64% 24226-13368 (37594) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Downavg 54¢ | $11.2 | $20.74 | +$9.54 | 56% 58403-45070 (103473) |
 pspspsps5<$100 | Downavg 59¢ | $8.23 | $13.95 | +$5.72 | 46% 38429-45392 (83821) |
WZ wzbbbCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $6 | — | -$6 | 56% 8168-6307 (14475) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $10.54 | $6 | -$4.54 | 66% 126575-65169 (191744) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 30¢ | $6 | $20 | +$14 | 58% 60841-44423 (105264) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $1.3 | — | -$1.3 | 65% 125846-67348 (193194) |
DE devonpollCTR<$100 | Up | — | — | +$0 | 51% 20272-19399 (39671) |
Invested
$111.91
Value
$183.66
PnL
+$71.75
Record
52%
8084-7595 (15679)
Both legs:
Invested
$57.98
Value
$47
PnL
-$10.98
Record
58%
38225-27367 (65592)
Both legs:
Invested
$66.06
Value
$131.87
PnL
+$65.81
Record
57%
71362-54385 (125747)
Invested
$43.07
Value
$33
PnL
-$10.07
Record
61%
95474-60238 (155712)
Invested
$13.44
Value
—
PnL
-$13.44
Record
54%
11125-9485 (20610)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$17.64
Value
$30.46
PnL
+$12.82
Record
49%
78260-81715 (159975)
Invested
$14.5
Value
—
PnL
-$14.5
Record
64%
24226-13368 (37594)
Invested
$11.2
Value
$20.74
PnL
+$9.54
Record
56%
58403-45070 (103473)
pspspsps5<$100Invested
$8.23
Value
$13.95
PnL
+$5.72
Record
46%
38429-45392 (83821)
Invested
$6
Value
—
PnL
-$6
Record
56%
8168-6307 (14475)
Invested
$10.54
Value
$6
PnL
-$4.54
Record
66%
126575-65169 (191744)
Invested
$6
Value
$20
PnL
+$14
Record
58%
60841-44423 (105264)
Invested
$1.3
Value
—
PnL
-$1.3
Record
65%
125846-67348 (193194)
Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
20272-19399 (39671)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $131.87
asidjasiodja
Down — $33
thesidehustle
CTRUp — $0
OhioRiskManagement
Down — $30.46
aaa221
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
Down — $20.74
pspspsps5
Down — $13.95
wzbbb
CTRUp — $0